The PC's 25th birthday
个人计算机诞生25周年

Getting personal

变的个人化
Jul 27th 2006
From The Economist print edition

It has had a glittering career. But are the PC's best days now behind it?
它拥有辉煌的过去.然而,个人计算机的黄金时期是否已经逝去了呢?

“ENDLESS LOVE”  by Diana Ross and Lionel Richie was at the top of the charts. Ronald Reagan was staring down the Soviet Union. And Princess Diana, aged 20, was on her honeymoon with Prince Charles.It was August 12th, 1981—and International Business Machines of Armonk, New York, unveiled the IBM 5150, its new entry in the nascent market for “personal computers”.
戴安娜罗斯和兰耐尔瑞切演唱的"无尽的爱"名列排行榜的榜首.罗纳德里根正不安而又密切地关注着苏联.而年仅20岁的王妃戴安娜正和查尔斯王子享受着蜜月的欢乐.此时是1981年8月12日--位于纽约Armonk的IBM公司揭开了IBM5150的面纱.这表示IBM首次介入新生的"个人计算机"市场.

This beige box, with a starting price of $1,565, had a mere 16 kilobytes of memory and used audio cassettes to load and save data. (A floppy-disk drive was optional.) IBM's press release trumpeted the screen's “green phosphor characters for reading comfort”  and “easily-understood operation manuals”  that made it “possible to begin using the computer within hours.”
这个淡棕色的盒子起价1565美元,拥有仅仅16K的记忆体以及运用盒式录音带来装载和存储文件.(软盘驱动器可选购)IBM在新闻发布会上说道:5150的屏幕使用了绿色磷光质涂层,这使得阅读时更加舒适.而且5150配有极其易懂的操作指南,使得人们可能在数小时内就可以开始使用.

IBM's previous attempts to launch a PC had failed. But today, 25 years on, the IBM 5150 is recognised as the ancestor of the modern PC, a crucial step in computers' evolution from geek playthings to indispensable tools of modern business and, for many people, private life. Roughly one billion PCs are now in use across the world; many office workers spend more time with their PCs than they do asleep or with their families. But the PC's spread has been uneven: in America there are 70 PCs for every 100 people, compared with 35 in France, 7 in Brazil, and 3 in China.
IBM先前开创个人计算机的举动失败了.然而在25年后的今天看来,IBM5150是现代个人计算机的先祖,是计算机革命的重要环节.而这个革命使计算机从杂耍演员的玩物成为现代商场不可获缺的工具.而对于许多人来说,也是他们的个人生活中必要的组成.粗略的估计,目前世界各地大约有10亿台个人计算机在使用.许多办公人员与他们的个人计算机相处的时间甚至超过他们的睡觉时间或是与家人共处的时光.然而个人计算机的分布是高低起伏的:美国每百人就拥有70台个人计算机.相比之下,法国35台,巴西7台.而中国仅仅才3台.

The PC has created wealth on a massive scale. The combined stockmarket values of PC hardware and software firms exceed half a trillion dollars. Cheap computers have boosted the productivity of individual workers. And hundreds of millions of people have benefited from access to word-processing,
spreadsheets, e-mail, file-sharing and cheap phone calls—to say nothing of the riches of the web.
个人计算机在广泛的领域创造了财富.个人计算机的软硬件公司的股票价值加起来超过了5000亿.廉价计算机提高了单个工人的生产力.而数以百万计的人们已经从文字处理,电子表格,电子邮件,文件共享和便宜的电话中获益.更不用说网络的价值了.

The PC democratised computing by making computers cheaper and more accessible than the huge mainframes that came before. IBM's PC was less advanced than some other machines on the market. But
it was backed by the most reputable name in computing. IBM did not release a product so much as unleash an industry.
个人计算机在降价及便于使用上超越了以前的巨型主机,达成了大众化.虽然IBM的个人计算机并不比市场上的其他一些机器先进.但是在它的身后,却有着IBM这个计算方面最具盛名的品牌在支持着它.IBM没有公布一项产品甚至是松开一门产业.(本句不太理解,有高手指教)

The secret of my success
我成功的秘诀

In many ways, the PC triumphed due to the very un-IBM way in which it was developed. When IBM's previous attempts at a PC failed to sell, being too expensive, a “skunk works”  team of engineers was convened in Boca Raton, Florida. The team did not report through IBM's stifling bureaucracy, but directly
to the top of the company. It was given a year to devise a low-cost machine. “The people doing that work weren't talking about it, there weren't any business cases done, there wasn't any annual budget review,”  explains Lewis Branscomb, IBM's chief scientist from 1972 to 1986. “IBM did a lot of radical things—and that proved to be very successful.”
在许多方面,个人计算机的成功归因于它的研发方式.而这种方式与IBM从前的方法大相径庭.当IBM之前在个人计算机上的尝试由于价格过高而销售失利时,一个由工程师组成的"臭鼬工程"队伍在佛罗里达的布卡拉顿被召集了起来.这支队伍不是通过IBM那令人窒息的行政系统来报告,而是直接汇报给公司的最高层.公司给了这支队伍一年的时间来研发一种低成本的机器."从事那项工作的人都对自己的工作决口不提.那里的人不需要做任何商业案例,也无需考虑任何年度预算的问题."刘易斯 布兰斯科姆(Lewis Branscomb)解释道.他曾经在1972年至1986年担任IBM的首席科学家."IBM做了许多极端的事.但事实证明,它们都非常成功."

To meet its ambitious goals, the team bucked two IBM traditions. First, instead of using only IBM parts, the team chose off-the-shelf components. Second, rather than keep the design a secret, the team made
the specifications open, so that independent software developers could flourish. When the PC finally launched, IBM expected to sell 250,000 units in five years. In the event, it had sold nearly 1m by 1985.
为完成它雄心勃勃的目标,队伍抛弃了两条IBM的传统.第一,它选择了现有的部件取代了只用IBM的部件.第二,队伍公开了产品的规格而不是保守设计机密.这一条令那些独立的软件开发商雀跃不已.当这台个人计算机最终发行的时候,IBM期望能在未来的五年内销售二十五万台.但事实上,截至1985年,就已经售出了接近一百万台.

Yet the very factors that led to the PC's success inadvertently prevented IBM from reaping all the benefits itself. The PC used a microprocessor made by Intel and an operating system made by Microsoft (led by a
25-year-old called Bill Gates). Neither was exclusive to IBM, and within a year other companies had
worked out how to make much cheaper “clones”  of its PC. Microsoft and Intel, not IBM, turned out to be holding personal computing's crown jewels.
然而真正促成个人计算机无意中成功的因素却是避免IBM获得所有的利益的举动.这台计算机采用了因特尔制造的微型处理器和由微软提供的操作系统,当时的微软是处在一名叫比尔盖茨的25岁男子的领导下.他们没有一个排斥IBM,并且在这一年的时间里,其他的公司也研究出怎样造出性能相同但价钱却更便宜的个人计算机.所以,是微软和因特尔,而不是IBM,证明足以拥有个人计算机的王冠.

“This IBM project was a super-exciting, fun project,”  Mr Gates told PC magazine in 1982. Asked what the future would bring, Mr Gates was as blunt as he was prescient: “Hardware, in effect, will become a lot
less interesting. The total job will be in the software.”  He was right. Today, society both benefits and
suffers from the PC's flexibility and openness. The magic of the PC is that it is a general-purpose machine
to which new functions can be added simply by installing a new piece of software. “The PC is a very fertile device,”  says Dan Bricklin, the inventor of VisiCalc, the first spreadsheet program. But this versatility comes at a price, since it makes the PC more complex, less secure and less reliable than a dedicated, single-purpose device.
"IBM的产品是一个非常令人兴奋,非常有趣的产品."这是盖茨于1982年说给PC杂志的话.当被问及个人计算机将带来怎样的未来时,盖茨如同先知般坦白:"硬件,实话实说,将变的越来越相似.总体的工作将在软件."他说对了.现在,社会由于个人计算机的全能性和开放性既获得了好处,也经历了挫折.个人计算机的魔力在于它是一个通用的机器.它可以通过仅仅安装一个新软件就获得一项新功能."个人计算机是一个功能丰富的装置"旦·布莱克林--第一款电子表格软件VisiCalc的缔造者说道.然而正是这多重的功能冲击着价格.因为多功能使的个人电脑相对于那些专注专用的机器来说,更加复杂却又缺乏安全,不可依赖.

As a result of these shortcomings, many technologies incubated on the PC are moving off it. Functions such as e-mail and voice-over-internet calling that were first rendered in software, just as Mr Gates
predicted, are now mature enough to be rendered in hardware. As a result, the PC is no longer centre of
the technological universe; today it is more likely to be just one of many devices orbiting the user. You can now do e-mail on a BlackBerry, plug your digital camera directly into your printer, and download music directly to your phone—all things that used to require a PC.
正是由于这些缺陷,许多源于个人计算机的技术反而从个人计算机上转移了出去.一些功能,如电子邮件或是网络电话首先转移到了软件上.正如盖茨所预测的,现在它们已经发展成熟,可以重新进入硬件.结果便是--个人计算机不再是科技领域的中心.现在,个人计算机更像是围绕着使用者的诸多装置中的一个.你可以在你的BlackBerry上收发邮件(译者注:BlackBerry是美国无线服务商Cingular旗下的手机品牌);可以直接将数码照相机联在打印机上;可以直接将音乐下载到你的手机上--这所有的一切以前都需要个人计算机.

At the same time, the PC is under threat as the primary platform for which software is written, as software starts instead to be delivered over the internet. You can call up Google or eBay on any device
with a web browser—not just a PC. People have been saying it for years, but this could finally allow much cheaper web terminals, or “network computers”, to displace PCs, at least in some situations.
同时,个人计算机作为一些软件的首要平台的地位也受到威胁.比如软件开始进军互联网.(这句话不知道怎么翻,有高手指教下)你可以在具有网络浏览器的任何装置上访问GOOGLE或是EBAY,而不仅仅是个人计算机.人们谈论这个已经许多年了,最终有了更低价的网络终端或是"网络计算机"去取代个人计算机,至少是在一些情况下是如此.

These shifts are affecting the big firms that grew up around the PC. Microsoft has moved into games consoles and set-top boxes, chiefly in case these other devices emerge as challengers to the PC as
“hubs”  for digital content. This week it confirmed that it will launch a digital music-player, called Zune, in
response to Apple's successful march into non-PC markets with the iPod. As for PC-makers themselves, the falling prices and commoditisation that have so benefited consumers have turned them into low- margin box-shifters. IBM got out of the business in 2004, selling its PC division to Lenovo, a Chinese
firm.
这些转变影响了伴随个人计算机而成长起来的大公司.微软已经介入游戏和机顶盒领域.主要是以防发生其他装置挑战个人计算机数码核心地位的情况.本周,它将发行一款数码音乐播放器,名叫Zune.以回应苹果公司的IPOD进军非计算机市场的成功.而对于个人计算机制造商自己来说,价格的下跌和积压的产品虽然令消费者获利却降低了它们的计算机利润.IBM于2004年放弃了个人计算机业务,将其卖给了一家中国企业--联想.

This does not mean the PC is dead. PC sales, at 200m a year, are at an all-time high. The PC's versatility means it will still be the platform on which new technologies tend to appear first. But with the rise of a plethora of other devices and the emergence of the web as a software platform, the PC now faces a
struggle against its own technological offspring.
然而这并不意味着个人计算机已经丧失活力.个人计算机的销售达到了每年2亿台.这个成绩并没有被任何产品超越.而个人计算机的多功能使的它仍将使新技术率先登陆的平台.然而繁多的其他装置的增多以及网络作为软件平台的出现将引起一场争斗.而争斗的双方使个人计算机和它自身科技的产物.

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