Dollar dilemmas走出美元困境

Does the new dollar policy make sense?美元新政策真的能起到作用吗？

FOR several years two rules have governed America's dollar policy. The first was that only the treasury secretary talked ①at length about the greenback. The second was that he repeated a vacuous mantra about a strong dollar being in America's interests, even as everyone knew policymakers quietly welcomed its slide.
几年来两个规则左右着美国的美元政策。第一，只有财政部长才大谈美钞；第二，虽然财政部长夸夸其谈，大唱赞歌，说什么美元的优势符合美国人民的利益，可是谁都知道那些决策者暗地想美元下滑。
vacuous adj. 空虚的, 茫然若失的, 无所事事的, 空洞的\a vacuous expression茫然的表情\
mantra颂歌, 咒语
at length :最后，详细的

No longer. American officials are worried about the dollar. On June 2nd Hank Paulson, the treasury secretary, gave a forceful rendition of the strong-dollar rhetoric in Abu Dhabi. And on June 3rd Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve, ②dwelt on the currency in a speech to a European audience. He left no doubt that American officials did not want further dollar weakness. The greenback's slide, he said, had contributed to an “unwelcome” rise in inflation. And he made clear that, together with the Treasury, the Fed was “carefully” monitoring currency markets. “We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar for inflation and inflation expectations.”
形式不再如往了。美国官员也开始担心美元的现状了。6月2日，财政部长亨利·保尔森在阿布扎比就强势美元发表了一次带有很强说服力的演说。6月3日，美联储主席本·伯南克在面对一群欧洲观众的讲话中也对货币问题进行了详细阐述。毫无疑问，他的讲话表明美其他的官员也不希望看到美元持续衰退。他说，美钞的跌落已经造成了通胀的出现，这是他们不愿看到的。他还清楚的表示，美联储正和财政部一起密切关注着货币市场的走向，“我们正在注意观察美元价格变化对通胀和通胀走向的影响”。
rhetoric adj.花言巧语的
rendition  n. 表演, 演唱, 翻译
dwell on:细想,详述,强调

By the standards of most officials' ③currency commentary, this was strong stuff, and the dollar duly strengthened—to $1.54 against the euro by June 4th. But bigger questions loom. What is behind America's new dollar policy and what practical consequences will it have?从多数官员对货币的评述这个标准来看，这确实是重磅一击，美元实力适当地有所恢复，到6月4日，其对欧元的价格增加了1.54美元。但同时大的问题也隐隐出现，新的美元政策的背后到底隐藏着什么动机？它有会有什么实际的影响？

④Inflation worries are a prime motivation.According to the latest figures from the University of Michigan, consumers' long-term inflation expectations have risen to 3.4%, a 13-year high. Hence the central bankers must appear vigilant, which means they cannot afford to ignore the impact of the dollar. 担心通货膨胀是最大的动机。密歇根大学统计的最新数据显示，消费者长期通胀期望值（指数）达到了3.4%,创下十三年来的最高纪录。所以，中央银行表现得非常警惕，他们负担不起忽视美元的影响的责任。

A related goal is to minimize ⑤the risk of a dollar rout. The Fed's rapid interest-rate cuts have fostered an impression abroad that America's central bank does not care about the dollar. At the same time, Fed looseness has caused headaches for countries, such as many Gulf states, that peg their currencies to the dollar. These countries ought to allow their currencies to rise. But if investors are nervous about the Fed's commitment to the greenback, such a shift might lead to a dollar rout. As Ken Rogoff of Harvard University puts it, the Fed is “⑥taking advantage of a respite in the financial crisis to shore up the dollar”.相关的目的应该是降低美元崩盘的风险。美联储及时快速的减息政策给其他国家的印象是美国中央银行根本不在乎美元的变化，它散漫的做法同时也颇使其他国家头疼，比如很多的海湾国家，因为他们的货币是和美元挂钩 (按美元计算) 的。对这些国家来说，他们应该要做的是升值本国的货币。但是另一方面，如果投资者对美联储的承诺不放心，那么这样的转变很可能就会导致美元的崩盘。正如哈佛大学的肯罗戈夫所说，美联储“正在利用金融危机间歇期的机会支撑着美元”。

This sows many doubts—not least whether the Fed would, if necessary, back its dollar rhetoric with higher interest rates. For the time being, the signal is about the end of rate cuts rather than imminent rises. The jawboning also creates some odd tensions. America has long urged China to allow the Yuan to appreciate faster against the dollar. Yet Mr. Paulson suggested this week that the Gulf's currency pegs were not the cause of its inflation problems. Washington seems to want Beijing to revalue, but the Gulf states to keep their pegs. America's new dollar policy may be less absurd than its old one, but it is still a bit of a muddle.这样的说法引起很多疑问，尤其是美联储是否会---或者在必要情况下---以提高利率的方式继续推行其美元政策。就目前而言，他们所发出的只是结束其减息做法的信号，而没有马上加息的迹象。出于施加压力的呼吁也制造了一些奇妙的局面。美国早就不断要求中国加快人民币对美元的升值步伐，而保尔森本周曾经暗示说海湾国家的货币（与美元）挂钩不是导致产生通胀问题的原因。华盛顿一方面要北京继续升值，另一方面又想让海湾国家保留其美元绑定的做法。新的美元政策也许会比旧的政策更为合理，但也同样有点令人迷惑不解。