Economics focus--Inflated claims 【EXCERPT】
Why China is not to blame for the surge in global inflation
MANY people in America and Europe think that the recent surge in inflation, like almost everything else these days, is “made in China”. For a number of years, cheap Chinese goods helped to reduce prices in rich economies, but more recently wages and prices have surged in China. On top of this, the hungry dragon’s insatiable appetite for food, energy and other raw materials has given cartoonists an emotive image for the surge in global commodity prices. As a result, it is claimed, China is no longer exporting deflation to the rich world, but inflation.
China’s inflation rate did indeed [---hit---] almost 9% earlier this year (by July it had fallen to 6.3%). And after declining for several years, the prices of America’s imports from China jumped by 5.3% in the year to July, pushing up the prices of goods in Wal-Mart, where many Americans shop. However, import prices from China are rising more slowly than the cost of goods from elsewhere: the average price of manufactured goods imported into America from industrialised countries rose by 10.1% over the past year (see chart above). Moreover, all of the increase in the price of Chinese imports reflects the fall in the dollar against the yuan, not higher costs in China. In yuan terms, average Chinese export prices are still falling.
There is something to the claim that China’s huge demand for food and energy is pushing up global commodity prices. China has accounted for a big slice of the growth in global consumption of oil and especially metals this decade, helping to drive prices higher. But its effect on global prices over the past year (when rich-world inflation took off) is easily [---overesitated overstated---]. The pace of growth in China’s oil demand slowed to 4% last year. That is still relatively high, but not nearly as much as its annual rate of 12% in 2001-04, a period when the Fed was fretting about deflation, not inflation. And China’s food production has grown faster than consumption over the past few years. As a small, but growing, [-----negtive sports net exporter-----] of wheat, maize and rice, China has, if anything, helped to ease world grain prices.
A more nuanced argument, suggested in a recent speech by Donald Kohn, the Federal Reserve’s vice-chairman, is that [-----less monertry policy-laxmonetary policies----] have recently caused emerging economies such as China to grow too fast, putting extra demand on resources. Mr Kohn concluded that [----------central banks in emerging economies should tighten policy to restrain economic growth, and so reduce global inflation ----------]. There are merits to this argument, but there is also a danger that Mr Kohn may be trying to pass the buck. After all, America’s interest rates have been historically low for most of the past decade and thus it must share much of the responsibility for higher global inflation.
Mr Kohn used to argue that globalisation had a muted impact on American inflation. In 2006 he said that emerging economies were mildly disinflationary, because by running current-account surpluses they were adding more to global supply than to demand. China still has a large external surplus, so—using the same logic—how can it now be [---filling fuelling---] world inflation? Other inconsistencies abound. Some economists accuse China of overheating and exporting inflation, at the same time as they criticise it for overinvesting and creating excess capacity, which would imply downward pressure on prices. Last year it was fashionable to argue that China should boost its domestic demand to reduce its excess saving; now it is being told to tighten monetary policy, which would slow the growth in demand.
参考译文：
Economics focus--Inflated claims
Why China is not to blame for the surge in global inflation为何中国不应该为全球通胀飙升承担责任
MANY people in America and Europe think that the recent surge in inflation, like almost everything else these days, is “made in China”. For a number of years, cheap Chinese goods helped to reduce prices in rich economies, but more recently wages and prices have surged in China. On top of this, the hungry dragon’s insatiable appetite for food, energy and other raw materials has given cartoonists an emotive image for the surge in global commodity prices. As a result, it is claimed, China is no longer exporting deflation to the rich world, but inflation. 美国与欧洲的许多人认为最近的通货膨胀像是现在许多别的物品一样，都是“中国制造”。许多年来，便宜的中国商品降低了许多发达国家的物价水平，但是最近中国国内的工资与物价水平飙升不少。除此之外，饥饿之龙对粮食、能源和其它原材料无法满足的食欲给了漫画家一个全球商品价格飙升的动感形象。因此，有了这样的断言：中国对于发达国家不再是通货紧缩的出口国，而是通货膨胀的出口国。
China’s inflation rate did indeed ①hit almost 9% earlier this year (by July it had fallen to 6.3%). And after declining for several years, the prices of America’s imports from China jumped by 5.3% in the year to July, pushing up the prices of goods in Wal-Mart, where many Americans shop. However, import prices from China are rising more slowly than the cost of goods from elsewhere: the average price of manufactured goods imported into America from industrialised countries rose by 10.1% over the past year (see left-hand chart). Moreover, all of the increase in the price of Chinese imports reflects the fall in the dollar against the yuan, not higher costs in China. In yuan terms, average Chinese export prices are still falling.中国的通胀率确实在今年早些时候几乎快达到9％（在七月份已经降到6.3％）。在下降了好几年之后，美国7月份从中国进口产品的价格比一年前提高了5.3％，提高了沃尔玛里商品的价格——许多美国人常去那里购物。然而，从中国进口的货物价格上升程度远远慢于来自其它地区货物的成本的上升程度：从其他发达国家进口的制成品的价格相对于去年上升了10.1％（如左图所示）。此外，所有从中国进口产品价格的上升也反映了美元对人民币的贬值，而不是中国国内更高的成本。从人民币角度来衡量，中国出口品的价格仍在下降。
There is something to the claim that China’s huge demand for food and energy is pushing up global commodity prices. China has accounted for a big slice of the growth in global consumption of oil and especially metals this decade, helping to drive prices higher. But its effect on global prices over the past year (when rich-world inflation took off) is easily ②overstated. The pace of growth in China’s oil demand slowed to 4% last year. That is still relatively high, but not nearly as much as its annual rate of 12% in 2001-04, a period when the Fed was fretting about deflation, not inflation. And China’s food production has grown faster than consumption over the past few years. As a small, but growing, ③net exporter of wheat, maize and rice, China has, if anything, helped to ease world grain prices. 对于中国对粮食和能源的巨大需求推高全球商品价格也有一些可辩护的地方。中国占世界新增石油和金属（特别是在这十年间）消耗的一大块，这导致了价格的上升。但是这在过去一年（正是发达国家通胀开始的时候）对于世界价格的影响显然被夸大了。中国对于石油需求的增长速度去年降到4％。这虽然相对仍比较高，但是比起其2001年四月的12％的年增长率低多了，但那时美联储则是正为着通货紧缩而烦恼，而不是通货膨胀。而且中国过去几年粮食生产的增速大于其消耗的速度。做为一个小型的，但是在增长的，小麦、玉米和大米的净出口国，中国更可能是在降低世界谷物价格。
A more nuanced argument, suggested in a recent speech by Donald Kohn, the Federal Reserve’s vice-chairman, is that ④lax monetary policies have recently caused emerging economies such as China to grow too fast, putting extra demand on resources. Mr Kohn concluded that⑤central banks in emerging economies should tighten policy to restrain economic growth and so reduce global inflation. There aremeritsto this argument, but there is also a danger that Mr Kohn may be trying to pass the buck. After all, America’s interest rates have been historically low for most of the past decade and thus it must share much of the responsibility for higher global inflation.一个更加微妙的证据是，美联储副主席Donald Kohn在最近一次讲话中说，正是宽松的货币政策导致最近一些新兴经济体例如中国增长太快，导致对资源更多的需求。Kohn先生的结论是新兴经济体央行应该实施从紧的政策以抑制经济增长而降低世界通货膨胀。这个观点有些可取之处，但是同样有危险——Kohn先生可能是在设法推卸责任。毕竟，美国的利率已达到过去几十年的历史低点，因此必须有人来分担更高的世界通胀的责任。
Mr Kohn used to argue that globalisation had a muted impact on American inflation. In 2006 he said that emerging economies were mildly disinflationary, because by running current-account surpluses they were adding more to global supply than to demand. China still has a large external surplus, so—using the same logic—how can it now be ⑥fuellingworld inflation? Other inconsistencies abound. Some economists accuse China of overheating and exporting inflation, at the same time as they criticise it for overinvesting and creating excess capacity, which would imply downward pressure on prices. Last year it was fashionable to argue that China should boost its domestic demand to reduce its excess saving; now it is being told to tighten monetary policy, which would slow the growth in demand. Kohn先生过去经常认为全球化有利于缓和对美国的通胀压力。2006年他说新兴经济体正在适度的通货紧缩，因为为使经常账户盈余，他们对于世界的供给比需求更多。中国仍有巨大的对外顺差，因此，以同样的逻辑来看，他们怎么会加剧世界通胀呢？其它的矛盾也大量存在。一些经济学家指责中国经济过热并且输出通胀，但是同时他们也批评中国由于过分投资产生过多产能。而这些过多的产能则意味着减小物价上升的压力。去年最时髦的话题就是中国应该提升其国内需求以减少其过多的储蓄；而现在则告诉其要实施从紧的货币政策，以减慢需求的增长。