Commodity Technical Analysis Daily

Daily Focus – Natural gas key support 5.71

There are precious few signs that suggest the decline from the bubble high of last year is over. Having rebounded off the 100 day moving average last month nat gas is once again pressing against its 2005/2006 lows at 5.71/5.75. This is a clear line in the sand for the market and should the support give way (on a closing basis) we would assume that the decline could accelerate lower towards Fibo support at 4.76 or even to the 2004 low at 4.52.

每日焦点：天然气的主要支撑位置为5.71

有迹象表明，从去年的虚高价格下降的趋势已经结束。百日均线上看，上月价格有所回落主要支撑位回至5.71/5.75（2005/2006年）。市场有一条明显走低的线，显示支撑位在降低（按收盘价为基础），我们估计降低速度会加快直指向Fibo支撑位在4.76，甚至到2004年的低位4.52。

Precious Metals & Energy

Gold

Short Term: Overbought – A “v shaped” recovery off the low is underway and typically these can be quite deep. That said, the market is currently looking stretched approaching the 637 retracement level and this combination could trigger a snapback to 600/610 before overhead resistance is seriously tested. In the bigger picture we view the recovery as a strategic selling opportunity assuming the onset of a wide range over the summer but for the time being we look to buy dips against 600. Platinum is also overbought and testing an important retracement level; aa dip towards 1200 will likely spur the next leg higher to 1287.

短期策略： 超卖 ―― V形反转正在进行，显然这个幅度会很大。这就是说市场正向637附近回撤，在高阻力位被测试之前，这个整合可能会回落到600/610。整体来说，我们看到反转是一种策略性的沽售的机会，假定夏季开始区间交易，但现在我们建议在600时逢低买入。铂也处于超卖状态，测试一个重要的回撤水平，如跌破1200意味着可能下次会升高到1287

Medium Term: Weekly patterns/Elliott wave counts suggest that there are still higher highs to come for gold, but that these will probably now be late this year, or even into next year. Meantime the road ahead is paved with erratic choppy ranges.

中期策略 ： 周线图模式/艾略特波浪理论显示黄金仍有走高趋势，但这可能要到今年年末甚至明年。同时仍有宽幅振荡。

Crude (Aug) 原油

Short Term: All signs remain positive – Oil continues to edge away from the Bull Flag breakout level and each higher close adds to bullish conviction and points to higher levels still. While underpinned above support at 72.00 we continue to target new all time highs. Initial resistance is at 75.40 then Bollinger Band resistance above is at 78.65 this week (WTI) but we have our sights set on 80 and higher. Buy shallow dips.

短期策略：所有迹象都很积极 ―― 石油继续继续偏离牛形旗帜，每次高收都会增加牛市的信心，也会指向更高水平。当支撑位在72.00以上后 我们可继续将目标定在新的高点。初始阻力位在75.40，然后本周WTI保宁阻力位在78.65以上，但我们认为应该在80或更高处。逢低买入。

Medium Term: Bull trend – While supported above 62.45 the long-term uptrend continues to point higher; our focus is on the 84/85 area.

中期策略： 看涨趋势 ―― 当阻力位在62.45以上，长期上涨趋势指向更高位，我们的注意力在84/85区域

Strategy / Position:

Long 0.3% Aug WTI 73.52 buy 0.3% at market (75.25) targeting 80.00, risking 72.00.

策略/头寸

在73.52买入0.3％八月WTI，市场价格位75.25时买入30.％，目标位80.00止损位72.00

Base Metals

Copper 铜

Short Term: 50% cap – The market remains reluctant to pay up for copper after the extreme volatility of the last month. Selling pressure against 7600, 50% retracement of 8800/6410 has us on the lookout for fresh buying evidence against 7115 and 6707 support levels to preserve the recent status quo. Only a dip below 6530 would indicate the buying is over and put copper back on track to test lower levels still

短期策略： 50％的限制 ―― 市场在上月大幅波动后不愿意高价买入铜。卖方压力在7600，在8800/6400时有50％的回撤，估计在7115时会有新的买盘 在6707支撑位时可保持最近的现状。只有当价格跌到6530以下才意味着买盘结束，并继续试探铜的更低的位置。

Medium Term: Choppy erratic conditions to dog copper over the summer – Copper has reversed trend and having been stretched to historic extremes and suggests a summer of chop before testing 5000/5500.

中期 ： 整个夏季都有宽幅振荡情况 ―― 铜以已经扭转趋势，并向过去的极端延伸，预计在测试5000/5500水平之前，出现盘整。

Aluminium

铝

Short Term: Pattern failure – The Double Bottom did not pan out and resistance in the 2600/25 area, and an overbought bearish crossover, has muted further gains. This increases the probability of a bearish move and a retest of the lows of last month (2420). However we note that since Oct 2005 a pattern of three consecutive lower closes like the current one, has been followed by an up tick; this introduces minor upside risk later in the week. Such confused messages point to a struggle in the 2420/2625 zone and keep us on the sidelines until the arm wrestle is resolved.

短期： 模式失败 ―― 双重底没有成功，阻力位在2600/25区域，超买熊市的交换阻碍进一步收益。熊市的可能性增大，重试上月地点2420。然而我们注意到最近的低收很像自2005年十月开始的三个连续低收。紧跟其后的是上升趋势。这表明本周后几日会有轻微上升的风险。如此迷惑的信息表明价格会在2420/2625区域徘徊，所以我们最好保持观望态度。

Medium Term: Roller coaster ride in prospect – Bearish weekly and monthly charts point to an important high having formed and in the aftermath erratic corrective moves will pave the way for a test of 2200.

中期

展望未来： 好比过山车一样 ――― 熊市周线和月线图表明一个重要的走高的趋势，在下午会为试探2200铺路。