Aluminum Outlook
After a dramatic sell-off in mid-October aluminum prices worked higher until December. Dollar weakness combined with a supportive stock situation to fuel the advance. A dollar rebound then helped to prompt an aluminum correction. Going forward, the prospects for a continued deficit lingering through the first-half of 2005 should keep aluminum stable to higher during the first several months of 2005.
在10月中的大举抛售之后，铝价回升至12月份。美元的疲软以及库存较为有利促使了此次铝价的回升。美元的反弹有助于预示铝价的变动。此外，2005年上半年度将会出现的持续赤字也会导致铝价在05年年初的几个月里稳步上涨。
Supply
Global primary aluminum production is expected to increase about 5-6% in 2004, down from an increase of over 7% the year before. While production has been buoyant in Asia, especially China, and decent in Europe; North American production has lagged. Labor difficulties, such as a 4-month strike Alcoa’s Becancour smelter, contributed to the decline. The picture here is improving. The Becancour strike has been settled and Alcoa has restarted some smelter operations in Washington state and New York. Accordingly, a recovery in US aluminum production looks likely in 2005, although with high energy and alumina prices, not to the levels of 2003.
供应：
2004年里，世界主要的铝产量预计能够增加5-6%，比之上一年7%的增长量有所减少。亚洲国家的铝产量有所增加，尤其是中国，而欧洲的产量则减少，北美的产量比较停滞。劳工纠纷还在持续的恶化，例如美铝BECANCOUR冶炼厂工人4个月的罢工。整体状况正有所改善。BECANCOUR公司的罢工已经平息，美铝公司已重新启动华盛顿和美国的熔炉设备。因此，美铝产量可能在2005年重新振作，由于较为高的能源与价格，所以并不会像2003年的水平那样。
If North American aluminum production has lagged, Chinese production has taken up the slack. Through October, Chinese primary production is up 18% according to the International Aluminum Institute (IAI, see chart opposite). Other sources are more restrained, putting Chinese production up 16-17%. The result has been large exports, up 40% on year, through January-October (to 1.04 million mts) and expected to reach 1.30-1.35 million mts for all of 2004.
如果北美的铝产量减少，则中国的铝产量就会弥补缺口。10月，中国的铝产量相对于国际铝业协会的数据来说增长了18%。其他的消息来源较为有限，中国产量上升了16-17%。这就导致了同年增长40%的巨大的出口量，1月份至10月份（达到1，040，000吨），并且预计在2004整年度里达到1，300，000吨-1，350，000吨。
That said, we question the sustainability of Chinese production at these rates. Aluminum production requires high electricity usage. This is a particular problem for China where summer power shortages have been experienced. To help cope with these power difficulties and as part of a general credit tightening, Chinese authorities are moving to rein in the aluminum production, especially for export. Delays or outright refusals have been reported for imports permits for alumina (feeder stock for aluminum). Alumina import bans have been exacted against smelters with capacity below 100,000 mts. The government has delayed approvals of new alumina refinery projects. Firms seeking to start new projects must invest 35% of their own capital (up from 25%). Perhaps, most importantly, on January 1st China is expected to remove an 8% tax rebate on aluminum exports. Accordingly, we expect Chinese exports to shrink significantly in 2005. Because of the uncertainty regarding Chinese production, the supply outlook is particular cloudy. Overall, faster North American production, although significantly offset by reduced Chinese exports, argues for primary production to grow somewhat faster in 2005, at perhaps 6-7%.
我们来探讨下中国铝生产业的成本问题。铝制造业需要非常巨大的电力能源。对于中国一个夏季电力紧缺的国家来说，这是个很突出的问题。为了能够在能源困难上争取竞争力以及涉及一部分的信贷紧缩问题，中国的权威人士决定控制铝的产量，尤其是出口。据报道，进口氧化铝的许可被拖延或者直接否决。氧化铝的进口禁令严格限制生产能力在100，000吨以下的冶炼商。政府延迟批准建立新的氧化铝精炼厂计划。如果某公司想开发展的计划必须投入其总资金的35%（比原先的25%提高了）。最为重要的是，中国将于1月1日把铝的出口关税降低8%。因此，我们预计2005年中国的铝出口量将会萎缩。由于中国的铝产量还未确定，因此铝的供应前景仍然不明朗。2005年里铝产量增长最快的北美地区所增长的产量能弥补中国出口量减少的6-7%。
Demand
Demand for primary aluminum has been excellent so far this year, up 8-9% (y/y) through October 2004. Demand growth has been led by China, up over 15-16% through October. Offtake from other Asian and Japanese consumers has also been brisk. US demand has been solid, up over 10% (y/y) through October, led by strength in construction and transport. Europe has lagged.
今年主要的铝需求量非常巨大，2004年12月铝的同比需求增长了8-9%。中国的铝需求量大幅增长——自10月开始增加了15-16%。亚洲其他国家与日本的铝需求量也活跃起来。由于制造业与运输业的发展，使得美国的铝需求量自10月以来同比增长了10%。欧洲的铝需求量停滞。
Aluminum consumption is linked to global economic activity. Going forward, aluminum consumption is expected to ratchet down from 2004’s rapid pace, in line with slower economic growth globally. There are tentative signs of this beginning in the US. For example, while still impressive, production of extruded aluminum products in the US has apparently peaked. US demand for aluminum intensive products, such as motor vehicles and housing, have also lost some momentum (see charts below).
金属铝的消费量与全球经济活动有着密切的联系。随着全球经济增长减缓，我们认为2004年铝的消费量有望同比减少。美国市场开始出现了一些假设性的征兆。例如，美国铝挤轧制造业已达到顶峰。而美国对铝精细加工品的需求呈下降的趋势，例如汽车制造与建筑行业。（见图）
The expected slowdown in US economic activity is mirrored by other advanced industrial economies as witness slower OECD leading indicators. Likewise the IMF is projecting slower global economic growth in 2005 (see charts below). Most noticeable is the slowing in both China and the US.
由于OECD领先指标的增长减缓，导致一些领先的工业经济体的经济活动增长放慢，从而映射出我们所预计的美国的情况。因此国际货币基金组织也在为2005年全球经济增长减缓而做安排（见图）。一些最为显而易见的增长衰退迹象出现在中国与美国。
Precipitating the slowdown in global economic activity is the effect of high energy prices generally, and the effect of the weaker dollar on export dependent countries in Asia and Europe. Higher US interest rates and Chinese credit controls to avoid an overheating are specific issues for these major aluminum consuming countries. That said, the slowdown in global activity can be viewed as a return to trend growth rather than as a significant downturn. For the US, the ISM purchasing managers survey remains strong (at 57.8 in November). Further Fed rate hikes are expected. But now that the 2% mark in the Fed funds has been cleared, the Fed has leeway to modify its measured pace of tightening should risks of sub-trend growth develop. As for China, it appears to be slowing, albeit to still impressive growth--industrial production growth has decelerated (to 14.8% (y/y) in November from over 19% in March and April). Fixed asset investment grew 29.5% (y/y) in October (versus 47.8% in March). Retail sales and consumer prices have also slowed, although less dramatically. Chinese officials likely will remain concerned about excessive growth well into 2005. Tight credit and administrative polices, which have targeted aluminum among other areas, will be slow to come off. Weakness in yuan the (pegged to the dollar) is working at cross purposes to these tightening policies.
由于能源价格居高不下以及弱势美元对亚洲/欧洲依赖出口的国家造成影响，导致了全球经济活动的急剧减缓。铝的主要消费国家会研究居高的美国利率以及中国为避免了一个经济过热而控制信贷的情况。这就是说，现今的全球经济活动减缓只不过是向正常增长趋势的回归，而不是一个显著的转折点（即视为调整而非转势）。在美国，对ISM采购经理人指数的研究兴趣依然浓厚（9月份在57.8）。我们预计美联储将会进一步提高利率。但现在联邦基金中2%的马克已经被清除，联邦冒着回归增长发展趋势的风险，重新调整其已定的紧缩策略。中国的工业生产增长指数已经开始下降（从3月和4月的同比增长19%下降至9月的同比增长14.8%）。固定资产投资10月同比增长了29.5%（3月同比增长了47.8%）。零售量及零售价格并不景气。中国政府在2005年仍将密切关注经济过度增长的问题。针对铝及其其它过热行业的信贷紧缩及行政政策会逐步开始实施。人民币的疲软起到了与这些紧缩政策不同的作用。
Given slower projected growth in 2005, aluminum consumption should suffer. We expect primary aluminum demand to grow by 6-7% in 2005 as opposed to 8-9% in 2004.
由于减缓的经济增长率，2005年的铝消费可能遭受重创。我们希望铝的需求量能增长6-7%， 2004年增长了8-9%。
Current and projected supply/demand determine the market surplus/deficit, which are most visibly reflected in stock levels and prices. This year’s robust US and Chinese demand will result in a aluminum market deficit for 2004 in the vicinity of 300,000-350,000 mts. Moving to 2005, higher North American supply and a deceleration in global demand will pare the deficit, to perhaps 200,000-250,000 mts. The 2005 deficit is speculative, of course, as much will depend on how strongly US production bounces back and/or Chinese production slows. However, given current strength in US and Asian demand, the deficits should accumulate most strongly in 1H 2005. According, the stock ratios—how long existing stocks would satisfy demand--should trend lower in 1H 2005 (data from CRU). This should support prices at current to somewhat higher levels
供求关系的状况决定市场是供应过剩还是赤字，并会直接由库存水平与价格水平反映出来。2004年，美国与中国对铝的巨大需求量引起了300，000-350，000吨的供应缺口。到2005年，北美增长的供应量以及全球需求量的减少会使供应缺口缩小至200，000-250，000吨。2005年度的赤字取决于美国制造业的复苏是否强劲或者中国铝产量的增长是否减少。然而，以如今美国与亚洲的需求量来看，2005年上半年铝的需求赤字会堆积得更大。因此，库存率，即现有库存能满足需求多长时间，会在2005年上半年呈下降趋势。所以，我们现在应该支撑价格达到一定的高位。
While fundamentals argue for stable to higher aluminum prices, speculative interest has kept the metals volatile in 2004. In part, Asian physical demand and lean stock levels have piqued this interest, but the weak dollar has also played a significant role (see chart). Depending on the course of the dollar, fluctuations inside of, or temporary breaks beyond, the contemplated aluminum price range can be expected.
虽然利多的基本面因素使得铝价稳步上涨，但投资兴趣使2004年的基本金属依然存在不确定性。亚洲的工业需求以及贫瘠的库存在一定程度上削弱了投资兴趣，但疲软的美元在其中扮演了一个重要的角色（见图）。基于美元的走势、内部因素的波动以及暂时打破高点的情况，铝的预期价格范围是能够估计的。
Conclusion
We look for a $1750-$1850 price range in aluminum during the early months of 2005. The stock situation remains favorable. For example, after builds in October, LME warehouse stocks are down 2% from the beginning of November and are down 50% in 2004. The lag in ramping up US aluminum production and still impressive economic growth in the US and China suggests lean stocks will be slow to rectify. Accordingly, we favor the high side of the range early. Downside risks to the outlook include failure to contain Chinese exports and, to a much lesser extent, a more precipitous US or Chinese economic downturn due to high energy prices or policy tightening. Upside risk comes from a rapid impact on Chinese aluminum production from its credit and export tightening. Inverse action to the dollar could also incite speculative buying/selling.
我们预计在2005年年初的几个月里，铝的价格 1范围将在$1750-$1850内。库存情况依然良好。例如，就10月而言，LME的库存自9月初以来下降了2%，整个2004年度下降了50%。美国铝生产业的滞后以及美国和中国的经济增长，使得贫瘠的库存在现在很难得到改善。因此，我们希望能尽早达到价格范围的高点。展望未来，向下的风险（即价格下跌的风险）包括中国无法正常进口，因为高能源价格和紧缩政策导致的更加陡峭的美国和中国经济下滑。中国的信贷紧缩以及出口限制会增加其铝的进口量从而增加了风险。美元的疲软能够刺激投机买入或抛售。