Inflation hits consumers worldwide

通货膨胀冲击全球消费者

The rising prices complicate policy efforts to battle recession.

越来越高的物价使得应对经济衰退的政策变得更为复杂

Gas pumps in the United States tell the same story as rice prices in Thailand: Inflation is a global phenomenon this year.

基督教科学箴言报（4月11日）---美国燃气价格上涨与泰国大米价格上升说明了同一个真相：通胀是今年的全球现象。

Oil hit a record $112 per barrel this week, and a United Nations official warned of continued pressure on food prices, which by one index are up 45 percent in the past year.

石油价格本周攀升至创记录的每桶112美元，一名联合国官员对食品价格的持续压力提出警告，去年食品价格指数上升了45%。

The challenges are worst in developing nations, where raw materials account for a larger share of consumer spending. But another factor – the sagging value of the US dollar – means that imports cost more in America and other nations that peg their currencies to the dollar.

发展中国家面临的挑战更为严峻，因为那里的原料占了消费支出的很大份额。美元汇率走低是另一个因素，意味着美国和其他以美元为流通货币国家的进口成本上升。

Still, regardless of this currency phenomenon, several broad forces are pushing prices up.

除去美元疲软的现象，仍有一些关键因素在推高物价。

After years of strong global economic growth, prices of oil, grains, and some metals have spiked. Investors are adding fuel to that fire by buying up hard assets like commodities, which are viewed as a hedge against inflation.

全球经济经历了数年强势增长后，石油，粮食，以及一些金属的价格得到了良好的控制。投资者购买类似于商品的硬资产，从而推高物价，而商品被认为是抵抗通胀的手段。

More fundamentally, many nations have been relatively loose in the creation of money supply. For all the news about interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, this trend goes well beyond US shores.

更为基本的是，许多国家一直减少货币供应量。美联储削减利率带来的帮助远远超出美国的支撑。

"We got to the higher inflation rates we have today versus a few years ago because monetary policy in general has not been real restrictive," says Jay Bryson, global economist at Wachovia Corp., a bank and investment firm in Charlotte, N.C. "At the end of the day the central banks of the world were running relatively loose policies."

北卡州夏洛特的一家银行和投资公司美联银行（Wachovia Corp）的全球经济学家Jay Bryson表示，“当前的通胀率要高于数年以前，因为货币政策普遍没有得到真正的限制。全球的央行直到最后仍在执行相关的放松政策。”

That creates a tug-of-war for policymakers now, because the world's largest economy is slowing down and may be entering a recession. The question in the US, and some other advanced economies, is whether to focus on stimulating growth or fighting inflation – which typically require opposite policies.

这造成了决策者们目前的激烈竞争，因为全球最大的经济正在放缓，并可能进入衰退。美国和其他先进经济体的问题在于致力于刺激经济增长还是抵制通胀-这通常需要采取相对的政策。

In its "World Economic Outlook" report issued Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund warned of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth this year, with America in recession.

国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）在周三发布的“世界经济展望”（World Economic Outlook）报告中，对今年全球经济增长大幅放缓以及美国经济衰退提出警告。

IMF economists see global growth of 3.7 percent this year, much lower than the 4.8 percent they had forecast last October. At the same time, the report warned of rising inflation pressures.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）的经济学家认为今年全球经济增长为3.7%，大大低于他们在去年10月份预计的4.8%。同时，该报告对通胀压力的上升提出了警告。

The Federal Reserve has been easing cutting short-term interest rates to stimulate a recovery. And the Bank of England cut its interest rate Thursday.

美联储通过逐步削减短期利率来刺激经济复苏。英格兰银行（Bank of England）于周四削减了利率。

Most economists say the Fed's moves are appropriate. But they also point to the possible need for concerted action by the world's central banks to fight inflation once the US economy has been stabilized.

大多数经济学家认为美联储的行动是正确的。但他们同时指出，一旦美国经济状况趋于稳定，为抵制通胀，全球央行将可能必须采取与美联储的协同行动。

"The near term worry here is probably too-slow global growth" in the next few quarters, Mr. Bryson says. "But if a US recession proves to be fairly mild in depth, "then the bigger worry may go back towards inflation."

Bryson先生表示，“目前短期内的担忧是全球经济增长可能在未来几个季度里过于缓慢。但是如果美国经济衰退程度缓和，那通胀将成为更大的忧虑。”

Still, for consumers worldwide, the price pressures are a very present and urgent concern. As of this week, Americans are paying a record $3.36 per gallon for gasoline, the American Automobile Association reported.

对于全世界的消费者来说，物价压力仍然是非常现实且迫切关注的问题。因为美国汽车协会（American Automobile Association）报，本周美国汽油价格达到创记录的每加仑3.36美元。

Skyrocketing food prices, meanwhile, have sparked panic and hoarding of grain in some nations. India has restricted rice exports. Indonesia and several African nations are experiencing unrest over food and fuel prices, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization says.

越来越高的食品价格，同时也引发了一些国家的恐慌，使得他们纷纷囤积粮食。印度限制了大米出口。联合国粮食农业组织（UN Food and Agriculture Organization）表示，印尼和一些非洲国家正在经历食品和燃料价格的动乱时期

"There is a risk that this unrest will spread in countries where 50 to 60 percent of income goes to food," said Jacques Diouf, the FAO's director general, on Wednesday according to a Reuters report. "We have seen riots in Egypt, Cameroon, Haiti, and Burkina Faso."

路透社报道，周三联合国粮食农业组织（FAO）的总干事Jacques Diouf表示，“这种动荡的局面将有可能蔓延到那些食品消费占总收入50%至60%的国家。埃及，喀麦隆，海地和布基纳法索已经出现了这种情况。”

The erosion of purchasing power worldwide seems to some extent surprising, given the weakening of economic growth. Often, a cooling economy would relieve pressure on commodity prices.

经济增长疲软引起的全球范围内购买力下降多少有些令人惊讶。因为经济降温通常会减轻商品价格的压力。

But inflationary pressures often take time to abate. And today, a majority of the world's economic growth is occurring in developing nations such as China, where hunger for raw materials continues unfazed by the US slowdown.

但通胀压力往往需要时间来缓解。目前，世界上大多数的经济增长发生在发展中国家，如中国，该国对原料的需求仍然没有受到美国经济放缓的影响。

Some economists say that upward pressure on commodity prices should cool this year, especially due to ripple effects from a US recession. But others aren't sure.

一些经济学家认为今年商品价格的上涨压力将会降温，尤其是因美国经济衰退带来的物价上涨压力。但其他人都不确定。

"The [economic] surprise of 2008 so far has been the upside surge in inflation, not the downside cut to growth," a team of economists at Merrill Lynch wrote in a March 26 report. "The current global economic expansion will come to an end when emerging market central banks decide to deal with this threat more aggressively."

美林证券（Merrill Lynch）的经济学家团队在一份3月26日的报告中写到，“2008年令人惊讶的经济现象迄今一直是急速上升的通胀率，而不是经济增长减缓。当前全球经济扩张将停止，当新兴市场国家的央行决定更加积极地应对这一威胁。”

In theory, prices for given products can move up or down without sparking the broader phenomenon of inflation – defined as a rise in the overall price level.For instance, prices for homes and many electronic goods are falling in the US, even as fuel and food costs rise.

通常既定产品价格的升和跌，不受通胀现象广泛蔓延的影响-而通胀被定义为物价水平全面上涨。例如美国的房屋和许多电子产品的价格下降，即使燃料和食品价格上涨。

But commodity pressures grab headlines, and can effect self-fulfilling expectations that affect the behavior of businesses and consumers.

但物价压力占据了首要位置，通过影响自我实现的预期给企业和消费者的行为造成影响。

Moreover, whether it's called inflation or a price shock, the cost of energy and food could remain under upward pressure now because of supply constraints. It's getting harder for nations to find low-cost oil supplies, and grains are now in demand as auto fuels as well as food.

此外，这无论被称为通胀或是物价冲击，由于供应紧缩，目前能源和食品价格仍然承受上升压力。这使得许多国家难以获得廉价的石油供应，粮食和食品像汽车燃料一样需求旺盛。

"The world economy is in a very difficult position, and policymakers do need to be concerned about both [inflation and growth]," says Charles McMillion, an economist at MBG Information Services in Washington.

华盛顿商业信息公司MBG Information Services 的经济学家Charles McMillion表示，“全球经济正处于非常困难的境地，决策者们必须同时关注通胀和经济增长。”

A key fuel of overall inflation is money supply, and central banks around the world appear to have tilted in recent years toward providing plenty of it.

应对全面通胀的关键因素在于货币供应量，全世界的央行近年来似乎已经减少了货币供应量。

Moreover, the Merrill Lynch report shows overall money supply growth ratcheting upward in the past year, led by nations other than the US

此外，美林证券（Merrill Lynch）的报告表明，去年许多国家整体货币供应量逐步上升，除了美国以外。

Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight in Lexington, Mass., predicts that a negative trend – a weakening in the world economy this year – will ultimately dampen commodity prices. "We're going to get into a zone where everything is going to be weak together."

马萨诸塞州列克星敦Global Insight的经济学家Brian Bethune预报了一个消极趋势-今年全球经济增长疲软最终将打击到商品价格。“我们将会遭遇到整体疲软的状况。”