The political underpinnings of global economic integration are fragile: the US is on the verge of what may ultimately prove the most significant defeat in its history; an attack on Iran looks possible; and North Korea has become a nuclear power. Above all, we live in a world marked by shifting relative power and religious and political turmoil in much of the Islamic world.

　　The big question then is not whether there will be some correction– even, at worst, a US recession – this year. The world economy should be able to survive such a jolt, provided its underlying dynamism remains in place. What matters far more is the future of  economic globalisation. On that we can hope, but can not be overconfident. Its viability will depend on wise leadership –acommodity, as usual, in  extremely small supply.

       全球经济整合的政治支柱十分脆弱：美国可能遭受其历史上最惨痛的失败；可能会对伊朗进行军事打击；朝鲜已成为一个核国家。最重要的是，在我们生活的这个世界，相对实力此消彼长，而大部分伊斯兰国家都存在着宗教和政治混乱。

　　由此看来，重要的问题并不是今年是否会出现某种调整，或者是否会出现最糟糕的情况——美国经济衰退。如果全球经济的潜在动力仍旧存在，那它应该能够经受得起这种冲击。更要紧的是经济全球化的未来。关于这一点，我们可以抱有希望，但不能信心爆棚。全球化能否继续，将取决于明智的领导——但一如既往，这种“商品”的供给量少得可怜。

posted on 2007-09-15 15:03 惠瑾 阅读(2221) 评论(12)  编辑  收藏 网摘收藏