North Korea blasts away hopes of engagement

朝鲜核试验炸毁了六方会谈的希望

Oct 9th 2006 | TOKYO
From Economist.com

The isolated state comes of age as a nuclear power, but the consequences could be all negative for Kim Jong Il

孤立的朝鲜成为有核国家，而结果对金正日完全不利

FOLLOWING through on a promise it made in the United Nations only last week, North Korea exploded a nuclear device on Monday October 9th deep under a mountain in north-eastern Hamgyong province. The regime of Kim Jong Il immediately declared that its nuclear test would serve to defend “the peace and stability on the Korean pensinsula and in the area around it.” On the contrary, the provocation has brought international condemnation and destabilised regional security, even raising the prospect of an arms race in which neighbours such as Japan and South Korea may consider developing nuclear weapons of their own.

紧接着上周在联合国作出的承诺，朝鲜于周一（10月9日）在平壤东北部一座山脉地下深处爆破了一部核弹装置。金正日（Kim Jong Il）政府即刻宣布朝鲜的核试验是为了保卫“朝鲜半岛及其周边地区的和平与安全”。恰恰相反，此举招来了国际谴责，瓦解了当地的安全，甚至引起周边地区的军备竞赛的可能，例如日本、韩国可能考虑发展自己的核武器。

In the near term, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are more likely to pose a greater risk to North Koreans than to the neighbours. The country is reckoned to have reprocessed enough weapons-grade plutonium to make several bombs (it has also admitted to a programme for enriching uranium). The bombs, however, are fairly crude—in the underground test, the nuclear reaction was probably triggered by a large conventional charge. Such a bomb, in other words, is not easily transportable; North Korea is still some way from being able to miniaturise nuclear weapons to use on missiles or even to drop from planes. Unusual means of delivery, such as a shipping container, would be needed if North Korea’s were to be used in anger. So the immediate threats from North Korea’s new capability come from radioactive leaks into the atmosphere and North Korea’s groundwater.

在近期，朝鲜的核能力给自身所带来的风险比其周边地区要更大。国际社会认为朝鲜所重加工的武器级钚已足够制造多枚核弹（朝鲜还承认在进行铀浓缩项目）。然而，这些核弹相当原始：在地下实验中，核反应也许由一个硕大的传统引爆装置激发。换句话说，这样一枚核弹不易移动；朝鲜距离制造出可用于导弹，甚至空投的小型核弹还有一定差距。一旦将朝鲜激怒，朝鲜恐怕要使用像集装箱海运这样非比寻常的方式来运输核弹。因此，朝鲜核能力最直接的威胁在于核辐射对空气或朝鲜的地下水的污染。

Yet an early international consequence of the test is likely to be the swift burial of the so-called six-party talks, involving China, South Korea, Japan, America and Russia. These talks, which have staggered on for ages, were meant to forestall North Korea going nuclear, dangling aid and security guarantees before Mr Kim’s ghastly regime in return for a verifiable dismantling of his nuclear programmes. However, the multilateral diplomacy that this forum offered never worked. China, not wanting North Korean problems to spill over the Chinese border, and South Korea, wedded to engagement at almost any cost, feared that putting pressure on North Korea would lead to instability. Meanwhile, the administration of President George Bush, though occasionally sounding tough, allowed the six-party talks to drift, its mind on challenges elsewhere, notably Iraq. Most of all, Mr Kim himself, though blaming America for tensions, had no intention of giving up his nuclear programmes.

然而，朝鲜核试验在国际社会最先引起的后果可能是迅速地终结了所谓的六方会谈，其中包括中国、韩国、日本、美国和俄罗斯。徘徊数年未果的六方会谈旨在阻止朝鲜开展核试验，以物资援助和安全保障为饵，要求金正日拿出可靠证据来证明朝鲜销毁了核计划。然而，该会谈的多国外交政策从未奏效。中国不希望朝鲜问题滑出中国的掌控范围；韩国几乎不惜一切代价达成协议，担心对朝鲜施压会对韩国造成不稳定。与此同时，布什政府尽管偶尔姿态强硬，但还是任由六方会谈流产，因为其注意力集中在别的地方，尤其是伊拉克。最主要的是，金正日尽管谴责美国制造紧张气氛，但他本人并没有放弃核计划的意图。

Here, Mr Kim, feeling the pinch of financial sanctions and dissatisfied with the region he sees outside his brutalised country—a region that is prosperous, capitalist and policed by American might—may have miscalculated. Rather than increasing North Korea’s advantage, its new nuclear capability may unite opposition. China, already angry at North Korea’s missile tests in July (in an unprecedented step, it signed on to a UN resolution condemning North Korea and imposing limited sanctions), lambasted its nuclear test. South Korea’s “sunshine policy” towards the north now seems very hard to sustain—on October 9th the government halted a shipment of food and put troops on high alert. Meanwhile, North Korea’s provocations have made it much easier for Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to bury longstanding differences on summit trips to Beijing and Seoul on October 8th and 9th. Neighbours now have a common desire to stop the potential instability—economic as well as military—that a nuclear North Korea might bring.

金正日感觉到金融制裁的压力，也对他所见的、在他残酷统治国家之外的世界感到不满，那个世界经济繁荣、资本主义盛行，且由美国强权维护治安。采取此举，金正日也许打错了算盘。朝鲜的新核能力非但没有为朝鲜带来优势，而且可能使其对立势力联合起来。中国依然对朝鲜7月份的导弹试射感到不满（史无前例地签署了联合国决议，谴责朝鲜，并对其施以一定制裁），对朝鲜的核试验严加斥责。韩国对朝鲜的“阳光政策”现在看来也难以维持 – 10月9日，韩国政府终止了对朝鲜的食物运输，并安置部队高度戒备。与此同时，朝鲜的挑衅将使日本新首相安倍晋三于10月8号和9号前往北京和汉城的首脑会面中，更容易放下存在已久的分歧。朝鲜的这些邻国如今有一个共同愿望，要制止朝鲜核试验可能带来的经济上的，以及军事上的不安定因素。

The action will now move to the UN Security Council. Australia has already said it will advocate tougher UN sanctions against North Korea, blocking North Korean funds and limiting the ability of North Koreans to travel. America will certainly push for the tougher policing of ships and planes that might be carrying weapons technology. More efforts will be made to go after Mr Kim’s own business empire, known as Division 39, that is crucial to the dictator for keeping the North Korean regime sweet. Countries with diplomatic relations may withdraw ambassadors. Already, the international attitude towards Mr Kim is turning from half-hearted engagement to what is already being called “malign neglect”.

这一行动现已移交联合国安理会。澳大利亚已然表示将支持联合对朝鲜更为严厉的制裁，阻止对朝鲜的资金援助，限制朝鲜人的出境旅游资格。美国无疑将对朝鲜可能载有武器的船只飞机采取更严厉的措施。国际社会还将采取更多措施对付金正日自己的商业王国，名为“三十九支部”(Division 39)，此部门对于朝鲜政权的独裁者至关重要。那些与朝鲜建立外交的国家将撤回派驻朝鲜的大使。国际社会对金正日的态度已经从三心二意的敷衍转变为现在的“恶意忽略（malign neglect）”。

North Korea's dangerous game

Oct 4th 2006
From Economist.com

Kim Jong Il's dictatorial regime, under intense financial pressure, is threatening to test a nuclear bomb

在巨大的财政压力之下，金正日的独裁政权要挟要进行核弹试验。

NORTH KOREA has few cards to play in international politics. Yet the isolated communist state is now brandishing what appears to be its ace, saying it will test a nuclear weapon and spreading disquiet in Asia and beyond. This week’s threat, apparently designed to prove a claim made last year that the country has nuclear weapons, marks a serious escalation of tension. It follows the test-launch of several missiles in July, one of which (though it failed in the test) was thought to have the range to hit Alaska.

在国际政治中，朝鲜没有几张牌可打。然而，这个孤立的共产党国家正挥舞着她的王牌，扬言将要试发一枚核武器，这在亚洲及其周边引起了不安。朝鲜在本周发出的这个威胁显然是为了证实去年该国所宣称的拥有核武器的说法，这标志着紧张局面的严重升级。此前在7月份，朝鲜试射了几枚导弹，其中一枚的射程原预计远达美国阿拉斯加州，不过试发失败。

It is unclear whether North Korea under its dictator, Kim Jong Il, really intends to conduct a nuclear test soon, but some say preparations have been underway for months. Mr Kim craves international attention and may be banging his drum now for various reasons. He wants to put pressure on a United States government preoccupied by mid-term elections at home, distracted by violence in Iraq and struggling to deter Iran from building its own nuclear weapons. (Mr Kim may possibly disapprove of the likely selection of South Korea’s foreign minister, Ban Ki-moon, as the UN’s new secretary-general.) Making trouble when America is distracted and widely stretched may be Mr Kim’s way to extract concessions from the superpower.

在独裁者金正日（Kim Jong Il）领导之下的朝鲜是否打算于近期进行核武器试验尚不清楚，不过有人称准备工作已进行了几个月。金正日渴望得到国际关注，而目前有好几个原因可能促使他采取大动作。美国忙于国内中期大选、受到伊拉克暴力事件干扰，且正致力于阻止伊朗制造核武器，朝鲜希望借此举向美国政府施压。（也许金正日不赞成韩国外长潘基文（Ban Ki-moon）有望当选联合国秘书长。）金正日也许想在美国精力分散且身担数任之时制造麻烦，以取得这个超级强权的妥协让步。

The nuclear threat is being taken seriously. Mr Kim’s regime is not near collapse, but it is under severe pressure, suffering strains at home because of poor harvests and floods and increasing isolation abroad. After the missile tests in July, the UN’s Security Council agreed to slap sanctions on North Korea. Even China, long-reluctant to put serious pressure on its neighbour, supported the UN resolution.

国际社会严肃地看待朝鲜的核威胁。金正日政府虽不至濒临瓦解，但面临着严峻的压力，承受着国内因粮食歉收、爆发洪水以及与国际社会日益脱节的种种巨大压力。自朝鲜于7月份进行导弹试射之后，联合国安理会同意对朝鲜施以制裁。就连中国也支持这个联合国决议，此前中国一直不愿意对其邻国朝鲜施以重压。

The country's official news agency said this week that a nuclear test would be a reaction to American threats. The threat is also a response to year-old financial sanctions, led by America, designed to crackdown on North Korea’s illegal efforts to get hold of hard-currency. These include traffic in illegal drugs, counterfeiting of legal drugs (like Viagra) and forging dollars, euros and yen. These are thought to be crucial to Mr Kim’s ability to keep control at home, letting him spread favours and pay for private luxuries. North Korea’s already limping economy is suffering too, as banks that once helped launder money for the communist state, for example in Macau, have frozen its accounts.

本周，朝鲜官方新闻机构报道称，核试验将是朝鲜对美国威胁的回应。朝鲜的这一威胁同时也是为了回应由美国牵头的、长达一年之久的金融制裁。这些制裁措施旨在打击朝鲜为获取硬通货所采用的非法手段：其中包括运输非法毒品、伪造合法药品（例如伟哥Viagra）以及制造假币，包括美元、欧元以及日元。这些手段对于金正日在国内保持控制地位、散布恩泽以及维系个人奢靡的生活至关重要。朝鲜已然疲软的经济也正受此影响，因为曾经帮朝鲜政府洗黑钱的那些银行，比如澳门的银行，已经冻结了该国的账户。

Reactions to North Korea’s latest threat have been swift. America’s secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, called it “provocative”. Japan had already taken a more assertive line towards North Korea after the missile tests in July. Its new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, told parliament on Wednesday that his country “could not accept” a nuclear test in North Korea. South Korea's response was unusually strong. The country went on a higher security alert, and a foreign-ministry spokesman said it would not “tolerate” a nuclear test.

世界各国对朝鲜刚刚发出的威胁反映不尽相同。美国国务卿康多莉扎.赖斯（Condoleezza Rice）称此举为“挑衅”。日本在朝鲜7月份导弹试验之后就已对朝鲜采取了更主动的线路。周三，日本新首相安倍晋三（Shinzo Abe）告知议会，日本“不能接受”朝鲜的核试验。韩国的反应异常强烈。该国继续采取更高级别的安全戒备，其外交部发言人称韩国不会“容忍”朝鲜的核试验。

China’s government has appealed for calm, but is also keen to deter North Korea from conducting a test, fearing that Japan may otherwise be encouraged to seek nuclear weapons itself. There are signs of growing Chinese pressure on North Korea. China has some leverage over its neighbour, absorbing the largest share of North Korea’s paltry exports (about a third) and providing aid and energy in return. The Chinese are furious with North Korea over the missile tests in July. Some reports suggest the quantities of food and oil that China ships to its poor neighbour have been cut. Observers are also struck that China supported the Security Council resolution on North Korea and quietly imposed some financial sanctions of its own.

中国政府虽然看似反应平静，但也急切地要阻止朝鲜开展核试验，因为中国担心此举可能会促使日本研制自己的核武器。有迹象表明，中国对朝鲜的影响力日益增强。中国队与邻国朝鲜确有一些影响力，她吸纳了朝鲜最大份额的小商品出口（约占三分之一），并提供经济援助和能源支持作为回报。对于朝鲜7月份的导弹试射，中国格外愤怒。有报道暗示说从中国运往其贫困邻国朝鲜的粮食和石油已经有所削减。中国支持安理会对朝鲜的决议，并静悄悄地自行采取了一些经济制裁，这给观察家们也留下了深刻的印象。

What will happen next is unclear. Americans and others will be pleased that Mr Kim is feeling that heat as North Korea’s counterfeiting activities are stopped. China and South Korea offer some limited leverage on Mr Kim’s regime. China is hinting that a return to stalled talks that include America, Japan, North and South Korea, may be the only way to negotiate a resolution.

朝鲜的下一步举动将是核武器。美国及其他国家将感到欣慰，因为金正日对于朝鲜制造假币的热情已经结束。中韩两国国提供有限的影响力来约束金正日政府。中国暗示说，也许重新开展包括美国、日本、朝鲜和韩国在内的业已停滞的六方会谈，才是达成一项决议的唯一途径。

The Nobel science prizes

The little and large show

世界大小观

Oct 5th 2006
From The Economist print edition

This year's Nobel science prizes have been awarded for cosmology and two sorts of genetics

今年的诺贝尔科学奖已颁发给一项宇宙学研究及两项遗传学研究

WELL, the waiting is over for another year. The great and good of Sweden's Royal Academy of Science and of the country's principal medical school, the Karolinska Institute, have deliberated. The laurels have been assigned, if not yet awarded (that happens in December). And the disappointed will no longer have to cling to their telephones like politicians hoping for a ministerial posting. With much fanfare, the Nobel science prizes have been announced.

一年的等待结束了。瑞典皇家科学院（Sweden's Royal Academy of Science）和瑞典最重要的医学院卡罗林斯卡研究院（Karolinska Institute）的那些卓越杰出之人士已经详细商讨。诺贝尔奖之殊荣虽然尚未颁发，但已经名花有主。而那些未能获奖的失望人士不再需像政客那样紧守电话，期待一个政府职位（ministerial posting）。因为诺贝尔科学奖已经在一片喧嚣之中公之于众。

This year, the prize committees have done well. They have managed to pick winners who, if not exactly household names, have at least done work that has had some resonance in the wider world. The physics prize is for a piece of research that has enabled cosmologists to map the universe as it was before the first star formed. The physiology prize (or “prize for physiology or medicine”, as it is known in the citation) is for the discovery of a phenomenon called RNA interference, which helps cells fight off viral infections and is widely touted as a possible basis for a new class of drugs. The chemistry prize is for a piece of X-ray crystallography, a favourite subject of the academy's prize committees over the decades, and a way of awarding an extra physiology prize (since X-ray crystallography is used mainly to examine large biological molecules) without confessing that much of the intellectual oomph has gone out of chemistry in the century since Alfred Nobel, himself a chemist, drew up his will.

今年，诺贝尔颁奖委员会干得不错。他们所选出的获奖者即使不是家喻户晓的人物，至少这些获奖者所作的研究也能在社会上引起更广泛的共鸣。诺贝尔物理学奖颁给了一项宇宙研究，该研究能令宇宙学家绘制出第一颗恒星形成之前宇宙的情形。诺贝尔生理学奖（也就是大家所熟知的“诺贝尔生理学或医学奖”）颁给了一个名为核糖核酸干扰（RNA interference）现象的发现。核糖核酸干扰能帮助细胞战胜病毒性感染，被广泛地吹捧做可能为一种新型药物的基础。诺贝尔化学奖颁给了X射线结晶法（X-ray crystallography），这是诺贝尔颁奖委员会数十年来都很感兴趣的一个项目，也相当于生理学奖的一项额外奖励（因为X射线晶体学主要用于检测大的生物分子），无需言明，自化学家阿弗雷得˙诺贝尔（Alfred Nobel）拟订其遗嘱以来，许多科学精英出自化学领域。

And the winners are

花落谁家

The physics prize went to John Mather of America's National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and George Smoot of the University of California, Berkeley. Together, they were responsible for discovering irregularities in the microwave radiation formed soon after the beginning of the universe, and which bathes the universe to this day.

美国国家航天航空局（America's National Aeronautics and Space Administration，NASA）的约翰.马瑟 （John Mather）和加州大学伯克利分校（University of California, Berkeley）的乔治.史莫特（George Smoot）荣获诺贝尔物理学奖。他们共同发现了在宇宙开始之初所形成的微波辐射的不规则性，这些射线至今还充满于宇宙之间。

The cosmic microwave background, as this radiation is known, began its journey about 300,000 years after the Big Bang in which everything started. When discovered, it appeared to be perfectly uniform. Some researchers, however, reasoned that it ought to carry imprints of the slight concentrations of matter that must have existed in the early universe if structures such as galaxies—and eventually stars and planets—were going to form. These concentrations would have acted as gravitational nuclei, drawing in gas from their surroundings and thus forming galaxies.

这种辐射被称为宇宙微波背景（cosmic microwave background），形成于万物开端的宇宙大爆炸之后约30万年。当人们发现这种辐射时，它呈现出相当规则的形态。因此，一些研究者推断，如果那些天体结构，如星系，甚至恒星及行星要想形成，这些辐射应当携有那些于宇宙形成之初必然存在的少量物质浓缩（concentration）的印迹。这些浓缩将作用为重力核心（gravitational nuclei），将其周围的气体聚拢起来，从而形成星系。

To test this idea, NASA built and launched a satellite called the Cosmic Background Explorer. Dr Mather ran the instrument on this satellite that looked for telltale variations in the microwave background, and Dr Smoot analysed the results, which were published in 1992. Their work, and subsequent refinements of it using a second satellite called the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, not only showed the ultimate roots of galaxies, it also provided evidence that the early universe underwent a sudden, massive expansion known as inflation.

为证实这一想法，美国国家航天航空局建造并发行了一颗名为宇宙背景探测器（Cosmic Background Explorer）的人造卫星。马瑟博士通过操控安装在这颗卫星上的设备来寻找背景辐射的变化，而史莫特博士分析了在1992年公布的这些结果。他们的这些研究，以及随后使用第二颗卫星威尔金森微波各向异性探测器（Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe）对这一理论所作的完善，不仅证实了星系最根本的起源，也为早期宇宙曾经历过一次突然的、大规模的扩张 - 也叫膨胀 - 提供了证据。

Andrew Fire, of Stanford University, and Craig Mello, of the University of Massachusetts, were not the first people to notice the phenomenon now known as RNA interference, but they were the first to have an inkling about what was happening. The observation they built on, first made in plants, and then extended to animals, was that the activity of individual genes can be silenced by versions of a molecule called RNA. This substance is similar to DNA (the chemical difference is in the group of atoms employed to stand as one of the four chemical “letters” of the genetic alphabet). The main physical difference is that RNA's molecules usually come in single strands, unlike those of DNA, the material of the genes, which are usually double-stranded (the famous double helix).

斯坦福大学的安德鲁.法尔（Andrew Fire）和马萨诸塞州立大学（University of Massachusetts）的克雷格.梅洛（Craig Mello）并非最早注意到核糖核酸干涉（RNA interference）现象的人，但他们是最早对核糖核酸干涉现象有一些了解的人。他们起初初对植物进行观测，然后扩展到动物。他们观察到单个基因的活动可以被一种叫做核糖核酸（RNA）的分子所抑制。核糖核酸与脱氧核糖核酸（DNA）类似。其化学上的差异在于用于代表来自基因字母表的四个化学“字母”之一的原字组不同。物理形态上的主要差异在于RNA的分子通常以单链形式存在，与构成基因的DNA不同，后者通常为双链（也就是著名的双螺旋结构）。

One of RNA's jobs in the cell is to act as a messenger: RNA copies of DNA genes are translated into protein molecules in cellular structures called ribosomes. In a nutshell, what Dr Fire and Dr Mello found, in 1998, was that what silences genes is adding double-stranded versions of their RNA messengers to the mix. This stimulates the formation of what are known as RISC complexes, which carry part of the double-stranded RNA around as a reference, and destroy any RNA that matches it.

RNA在细胞中的一项任务就是担当信使之职。RNA将所复制DNA基因信息转化到蛋白质分子中的那些核糖体的分子结构中。1998年法尔博士和梅洛博士发现，增加双链形态的RNA信使能够起到抑制基因的作用。这一发现导致了RNA诱导沉默复合体（RISC complexes）的形成，RNA诱导沉默复合体携带了一小段双链结构的RNA作为参考，并能摧毁何与之吻合的RNA。

The reason, from the cell's point of view, for doing this, is that healthy animal and plant cells never make double-stranded RNA. On the other hand, many viruses do. Recognising and destroying double-stranded RNA is thus a safe way of attacking infection. Whether that insight can be turned into drugs remains to be seen. But many are trying, and billions of dollars rest on their success.

从细胞角度而言，此举的原因在于健康的动植物细胞从不制造双链的RNA。换句话说，许多病毒细胞带有双链RNA。因此，识别并摧毁双链RNA是打击这些传染病毒的安全之道。这一深入的理解能否转变为药物还有待观察。但许多人已经在进行尝试，如若成功，将带来几十亿美元的收入。

Roger Kornberg, the winner of the chemistry prize, and another member of the faculty of Stanford University, studied the process by which genes are copied into RNA in the first place. This is done by an enzyme called RNA polymerase, which binds to the DNA and runs along one of the strands of the double helix. Each time it comes to a new chemical letter on the strand it is reading, it reconfigures itself to add a complementary letter to the RNA molecule it is creating.

诺贝尔化学奖获得者罗杰·考恩伯格（Roger Kornberg）也是斯坦福大学的教员，他所研究的是基因信息最初复制到RNA中的过程。这一过程由一种名为核糖核酸聚合酶（RNA polymerase）的酶实现，它附着在DNA上，并沿着DNA的双链结构移动。每次接触到一个双链上的新化学字母，它会读出这个字母，并对自身重新调配，在它所创建的RNA分子中增加一个互补的字母。

Dr Kornberg worked out the details by crystallising the complex of DNA, RNA and polymerase at various stages of the process. He then photographed each version of the complex with X-rays.

考恩伯格博士通过对此过程中各个阶段的DNA、RNA和聚合酶的复合体进行结晶，研究出这一过程的详细情况。然后，他用X射线拍下各个阶段的复合体的照片。

That process of X-ray crystallography, which calls for a lot of complex mathematics rather than the mere creation of a photographic image, was invented by two Britons, Sir William Bragg and his son Lawrence. They jointly won the Nobel prize for physics in 1915. Coincidentally, Dr Kornberg's father, Arthur, is also a Nobel laureate. He won the physiology prize in 1959 for working out the details of how DNA is synthesised. Whether such familial talent is a matter of nature or nurture will, no doubt, be the subject of a future prize.

X射线结晶法（X-ray crystallography）的过程要求不仅需要照出图片，更需要进行大量复杂的数学计算，这一方法由两名英国人威廉姆斯.布瑞格爵士（Sir William Bragg）和他的儿子劳伦斯发明。他们共同获得了1915年的诺贝尔物理学奖。无独有偶，考恩伯格博士的父亲亚瑟（Arthur）也是诺贝尔奖获得者。他因研究出DNA合成过程的细节而获得了1959年的诺贝尔生理学奖。而这样家族式的天赋究竟是由于遗传天性还是后天养育无疑将成为将来诺贝尔奖项的研究课题。

Looting the aged
洗劫养老金

Sep 7th 2006 | BEIJING
From The Economist print edition

A corruption scandal in Shanghai makes political mileage for Hu Jintao
上海的金融腐败案成为胡锦涛的政治筹码

EVEN if they were well managed, China's social-security funds would find themselves hugely in the red in a few years' time, as a bulge of retired workers start demanding pensions. But recent allegations of massive corruption in the management of Shanghai's fund, involving the illicit use of $400m, reveal just how much officials can worsen the problem.
即使上海的社会保险金得以妥善管理，它也会在不久的将来入不敷出，因为愈来愈多的退休工人开始索取养老金。而最近报道的上海基金管理部门涉及非法挪用4亿美金养老金的特大腐败案，表明这些官员们到底可以把问题弄得多糟。

For a city that is trying to promote itself as China's sophisticated financial capital, the scandal is a serious blow. For President Hu Jintao, eager to display his authority in the run-up to an important Communist Party conclave next year, it may be beneficial. In his handling of the allegations, he has shown a willingness to crack down on waywardness in the provinces, which have been frustrating the central leadership's efforts to rein in the economy. As a particularly powerful enclave, which enjoys the status of a province, and is reputed—though evidence for this is debatable—to be a bastion of Mr Hu's political rivals, Shanghai was a perfect case for Mr Hu to act upon. More than 100 officials have been dispatched from Beijing to investigate the alleged graft, according to the government news agency, Xinhua.
此番丑闻，对于一个试图将自己树立为中国成熟的金融首府的城市而言，是一次巨大的打击；（而）对一心要在明年召开的重要的共产党会议上树立威信的胡锦涛主席而言，或许颇有好处。在此次事件的处理中，胡锦涛表示出积极姿态打击那些有碍中央政府统筹经济的地方派系的恣意妄为。作为权势之都，上海即享有省级市之地位，也赋有胡锦涛政敌堡垒（尽管此说之根据颇有争议）之名，是胡锦涛杀鸡儆猴的绝佳选择。据政府新闻机构新华社消息称，北京已派遣百余名官员来调查此次所谓的贪污事件。

China's official media have described it as Shanghai's biggest financial scandal in many years. It allegedly involves the misappropriation of one-third of the city's $1.2 billion social-security fund. Since the scandal was uncovered in July, the director of Shanghai's Municipal Labour and Social Security Bureau, Zhu Junyi, and a district government chief, Qin Yu, have been sacked. Mr Qin happens to be a former top aide of the city's party chief, Chen Liangyu, who is also a member of the ruling Politburo. Several prominent people in the business world are being questioned. On September 5th Chinese media said Wu Minglie, the chairman of one of Shanghai's biggest property developers, New Huangpu Group, had been detained.
中国官方媒体将此称作上海多年来最大的金融丑闻。据说此次丑闻涉及挪用该市12亿美金社保基金的三分之一。自该丑闻于7月份曝光以来，上海市劳动和社会保障局（Shanghai's Municipal Labour and Social Security Bureau）局长祝均一和上海某区区长秦裕均被免职。无独有偶，秦曾是上海市委书记兼中共中央政治局委员陈良宇的秘书。多名商界显要人士受到审问。9月5日，中国媒体报道称，新黄浦集团（上海最大的房产开发商之一）的董事长吴明烈已被双规。

According to Chinese press reports, the fund lent money that was used to invest in risky toll-road and real-estate projects. In theory, social-security funds should mainly be invested in treasury bonds and bank deposits, which yield very low returns. The government has been cautious about allowing funds to be put into stocks because China's capital markets are still rather rough and ready. It also fears that any loosening of controls could encourage abuses by local officials. But a lack of transparency in the management of funds, combined with pressures to make up pension deficits, still result in frequent wrongdoing. Xinhua quoted an official as saying that 16 billion yuan ($2 billion) had been embezzled from the funds since 1998.
据中国新闻媒体的报道，这些社保基金被用于投资具风险性的收费高速公路和房地产项目。从理论上说，社保基金只能投资于低回报的国库券或存入银行账户。出于谨慎，中国政府未允许社保资金进入股市，因为中国的金融市场还很不规范。政府还担心稍有监管不善都会纵容地方官员滥用职权。但基金管理缺乏透明度，加上填补基金短缺的压力，致使违规事件仍屡有发生。新华社引用某位官员的话说，自1998年来，已有160亿人民币（合20亿美金）的社保基金被挪用。

Shanghai's case is the latest in a series of big corruption stories reported by the Chinese media in recent weeks. A deputy mayor of Beijing, a chief prosecutor in nearby Tianjin, a deputy commander of the navy and a deputy governor are among those who have been arrested. But the scandal in Shanghai has aroused particular attention because of widespread public concerns about meagre pensions and unemployment benefits as well as the fast-rising cost of health care. A commentary on one official newspaper website spoke of a “crisis of confidence” in the social-security system generated by the Shanghai case. The famous words of Lord Acton, a 19th-century historian, were quoted in another: “Absolute power corrupts absolutely.”
上海社保基金案是近几周来中国媒体所报道的系列大型腐败案中最新一例。这些腐败案中的大批涉案人员被捕，其中包括一名北京市副市长，一名天津市检察长，一名海军副司令以及一名副省长。然而，养老金和失业救济金的贫瘠，以及看病花销的迅速攀升引起人们普遍的担忧，因此上海社保基金案尤为令人关注。某官方报纸网站的一条评论说到，上海案已引发社保系统的“诚信危机”。另有人引用19世纪历史学家阿克顿勋爵的名言说“绝对的权力导致绝对的腐败。”

The Chinese media say government auditors are now examining accounts at social-security departments across the country. Such checks are conducted regularly, but this time they are being carried out by officials from other regions, in an apparent effort to minimise the possibility of cover-ups.
中国媒体称政府审计人员已着手在全国范围内审核社保部门的账户。此类核查通常都是例行检查，但此次审核是由异地审计员执行，显然是为了将包庇之可能见到最低。

Dark days at Ford
福特的黯淡期

Sep 15th 2006
From Economist.com

Any mood you like, as long as it's black
黑云压城城欲摧 [注1]

WHEN Ford unveiled its plan for a “Way Forward” in January, the future of the company and its workers seemed pretty bleak. Its declining share of the market for new cars in America and the prospect of fresh losses meant that some 30,000 jobs would have to be slashed, and as many as 14 plants in North America would have to be closed by 2012. But that, it seems, was only half the sorry story. In a well-trailed announcement on Friday September 15th, Ford says it now plans to cut salaried staff by one third, or by 14,000 jobs, in an effort to slice another $5 billion a year from its costs by 2008.
当福特公司在一月份宣布其“前进之路”的计划，公司的前景及其员工的未来就显得一片惨淡。福特美国新车市场份额的下降以及即将面临的亏损，意味着到2012年，它不得不削减约3万个职位，并关闭多达14家北美的工厂。不过，这看来只是这悲惨故事的一半。在9月15日星期五，福特公司在一份备受关注的声明中表示，福特现计划年到2008年之前削减三分之一的领取固定工资的员工（约1万4千个职位），以使每年再节省50亿美元的成本。

If that were not enough, Ford also admits that its plants in North America are unlikely to be profitable before 2009, a year later than was expected even a few months ago. And the company says it will suspend its payment of quarterly dividends and try to speed up the introduction of new models.
仿佛这还不够（糟），福特公司还坦言其北美的工厂在2009年前无盈利之可能，这比几个月前的预测还晚了一年。而福特还表示，将暂缓公司的季度分红，并尽快推出新车型。

That may be made more difficult by the unexpected departure of Anne Stevens, the chief operating officer for the Americas and an architect of the “Way Forward”. She and Dave Szczupak, who was in charge of manufacturing for the Americas, may be out of the door by the time thousands of other staff decide whether to accept to quit, too. In an effort to ensure that as many workers as possible accept its terms, Ford said that all 75,000 members of factory staff in America will be offered redundancy packages agreed with the United Auto Workers union (UAW).
而北美区首席运营官兼“前进计划”设计师安•史蒂文斯（Anne Stevens）出人意料的离职也许会令情况更糟。等到数千名其他职工作出是否离职之决定时，也许安和原主管北美生产的戴夫•斯兹帕克（Dave Szczupak）已离开了福特。为确保更多的员工接受离职条款，福特公司表示将向美国工厂所有的7万5千名职工发放与全美汽车工人联合工会（United Auto Workers union，UAW）达成的裁员计划。

The fact that the UAW supports the redundancy offer is bound to increase its chances of success. On Thursday, the union said it had agreed terms with Ford covering all hourly-paid workers represented by the union. “Once again, our members are stepping up to make hard choices under difficult circumstances,” said Ron Gettelfinger, president of the UAW.
而UAW对福特裁员计划的支持，无疑增加它的胜算。周四，工会表示已与福特达成一份涉及其盟下所有的福特的小时工的协议。UAW的主席容•盖特芬格（Ron Gettelfinger）说，“我们的成员再次在困难时期挺身而出，作出艰难的抉择。”

How dark are the prospects at Ford? The world’s third-largest carmaker has been trying to return to making a profit for four years now, with little success. Although three years of recovery offered some hope, it slipped back into a loss of $1.3 billion during the first six months of this year. Newspaper reports in Detroit suggest that this could rise to as much as $5.9 billion for the full year. If so, this is on a par with a loss of $5.5 billion in 2001.
福特的前景有多暗淡？世界排名第三的汽车制造商已于四年前开始努力扭亏为盈，但成效不大。尽管三年的复苏让人看到希望，今年上半年又重蹈覆辙，亏损13亿美元。底特律的报纸暗示说（福特公司）全年的亏损可能高达59亿美元。若真如此，这与2001年的55亿美元的亏损不相上下。

Ford’s main problem is that its share of the American market for new cars, still the world’s biggest, is now just 17%, down from around a quarter a few years ago. Higher fuel costs have dented sales of big pick-up trucks and sports utility vehicles (SUVs), on which the firm relied in the past. Customers have switched to smaller SUVs and even to cars, where nimbler rivals such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda are doing much better. By its own admission, Ford now expects its share of the market to fall to 15% or even 14% before—hopes the company—it recovers.
福特的主要问题在于，其美国新车市场的份额虽然仍是世界第一，却从几年前的25%降为现在的17%。油价的攀升使公司过去赖以生存的大型皮卡货车和运动型多功能车（SUVs）的销量减少。客户开始转向丰田、尼桑和本田更具优势的小型SUVs，甚至小汽车市场。据福特公司自己承认，福特目前预计在其经营好转之前，其市场份额将跌至15%，甚至14%。

Even General Motors (GM), Ford’s main home-grown rival, has faired better of late. GM managed to make a profit (excluding write-offs) during the first half of the year, and is cutting back on the number of discounts it offers on new cars. Perhaps most important for its long-term prospects, it has persuaded a third of its workers to accept severance payments.
即便是福特在国内的主要对手通用汽车，最近也有所好转。通用于今年上半年已开始盈利（除注销款项（write-offs）），并减少了新车的优惠幅度。也许从长远来看更重要的是通用说服了三分之一的员工接受解雇金（severance payment）。

Whether or not Ford manages to reduce its costs by enough to put it back on track will depend largely on Alan Mulally, who was recently appointed chief executive officer. Mr Mulally has form. He managed to restore Boeing, his former employer, to profitability after troubles engulfed the aviation industry in 2001; he even succeeded in recapturing part of Boeing’s market share from Airbus, its arch rival.
福特能否将其成本减低到足以使其经营重新上轨道，主要依赖于新上任的总裁艾伦•穆拉利（Alan Mulally）。穆拉利颇有口碑。在2001年航空业陷入困境之后，他曾设法令前雇主波音公司扭亏为盈；他甚至助波音成功地从主要竞争者空客手中夺回部分市场份额。

To pull off the same trick at Ford, Mr Mulally will need more than luck. He faces a difficult balancing act with Bill Ford, a scion of the founding family and—until Mr Mulally’s appointment—chief executive officer as well as chairman. Many investors would like Mr Ford to step back even further from day-to-day management of the company. Indeed, some go as far as saying that Ford is unlikely to restore its fortunes until the family retreats from the boardroom.
要在福特取得同样的成功，穆拉利所需的不仅是运气。他要面对与比尔•福特（Bill Ford）的棘手的周旋。福特既是公司继承人，还是穆拉利到任之前公司的首席执行官兼董事会主席。许多投资者希望福特尽量少插手公司的日常事务管理。而实际上，有些人甚至说福特家族如果不退出董事会，福特公司将无法重获生机。

It could take years to see any real improvement. Ford has too few of the right products for today’s market. Even if Mr Mulally does manage to restore confidence to Ford’s management team, it will take time to plug the gaps in the company’s product line-up. And rivals are likely to continue to erode its share of the market. The road ahead is murky indeed.
要取得真正的进展还需要几年时间。福特公司现有的适销对路产品实在太少。即使穆拉利的确重振福特管理团队的信心，填补公司产品线的空缺也需要一段时间。而竞争对手们很可能继续蚕食福特的市场份额。福特之前路的确渺茫。

[注1] 作者的原话“any mood you like, as loog as it's black.”是对亨利.福特在当年的福特T型车大受欢迎，供不应求时所说的一句名言“You can have any color you want, so long as it's black.（随便你选什么颜色，只要是黑色。）”的巧妙修改。老福特之话显出福特汽车当年之风光，而作者别出心裁的修改不仅契合福特的身陷困境的窘状，更添一层讽刺意味在其中，实在是妙。

Hanging with the in-crowd
同自己人打成一片

Sep 14th 2006
From The Economist print edition

Big media firms and investors are cosying up to social-networking websites
大型传媒公司和投资者纷纷看好社交网络服务类网站

WEBSITES for social networking have never had so many friends. The best known, MySpace, recently became the most visited website in America. Its acquisition last year by News Corporation, a media giant headed by Rupert Murdoch, for $580m now looks like a masterstroke. Other media groups and investors are crowding around other such websites, which allow people to create their own pages with photos and blogs and make connections with other people. Takeover rumours have been swirling around two smaller sites, Facebook and Bebo. And a group of investors recently put $10m into Friendster, an early example of the genre that is trying to make a comeback. Even Wal-Mart, an American retailing giant, has started a social-networking site, called The Hub — to widespread derision, because it forbids the racy content that users enjoy.
社交网络服务类网站炙手可热。其中最出名的MySpace网站近来荣登美国网站点击率榜首。去年，传媒巨头鲁珀特•默多克（Rupert Murdoch）的新闻集团（News Corporation）出价 5亿8千万美金收购MySpace之举现在看来委实高明。其他传媒集团和投资者也纷纷盯上此类能让人们使用照片和博客建立自己的网页并能与他人交流的网站。较小的两个社交网络Facebook和Bebo已传出将被收购的消息。最近，还有一批投资者投入1千万美金，以重振早期社交网站Frindster之雄风。就连美国零售业巨头沃尔玛也推出一个名为 The Hub 的社交网络服务类网站，此举被传为笑柄，因为该网站对用户所喜爱的那些独特而活泼的内容予以禁止。

After plenty of initial scepticism, investors now accept that MySpace and its rivals can make a lot of money by selling advertising space. Advertisers were wary of putting ads on individual home pages, which often feature lewd and unpredictable content. But they cannot ignore the fact that millions of young people spend hours on these websites. Last month MySpace made a deal allowing Google, an internet-search giant, to sell a big chunk of ad space on MySpace and on News Corp's other websites over the next three years. Google has guaranteed a minimum of $900m in revenue in return.
在打消最初的种种疑虑之后，投资者们现在发现出售广告位能为MySpace及类似的网站带来丰厚的收入。过去，广告客户们出于谨慎而不在个人网页上登广告，因为这些网页的内容常常不健康甚至难以预料。但现在，他们无法忽视这一事实：数百万年轻人在这些网站一呆就是几个小时。上个月，MySpaceyu同搜索引擎巨头Google达成协议，在未来三年中允许Google在MySpace及新闻集团的其他网站上大量出售Google的广告位。Google承诺支付9亿美元作为此项协议之回报。

The more attractive social networking becomes as a business, of course, the more competition there will be. The very biggest internet firms—Google, Yahoo! and AOL—have all launched services, but so far independent ones have been the most popular: MySpace, the biggest, has over 108m users. So potential buyers are circling and MySpace's rivals are jockeying for position.
社交网络服务所带来的商机越大，竞争自然也越激烈。Google, Yahoo!及AOL等互联网公司巨头均已推出此类服务，然而，到目前为止还是自营类社交网络服务网站最受欢迎：其中最大的MySpace已拥有超过1亿零8百万名用户。因此，MySpace已吸引了众多潜在消费者，而其竞争对手正挖空心思欲分得一杯羹。

MySpace invaders
MySpace的挑战者

This week Facebook, with around 9m registered users, made a move to take on MySpace. Facebook was founded by Mark Zuckerberg, a student who put Harvard's yearbook on the internet in 2004. His creation then spread to Yale and beyond. It now covers most American colleges and many high schools. In contrast to MySpace, which accepts everyone, Facebook is based on separate, closed networks for each college or school; members can link to someone in another network only with his permission. This allows Facebook to provide a more exclusive, secure and trusting environment than MySpace—and to earn more from advertisers, who want to sell to college students. Chris DeWolfe, the chief executive of MySpace, says Facebook has done a brilliant job at colleges, “but it's limited to that, and it will be easy [for rivals] to copy outside America.”
本周，拥有约9百万注册用户的Facebook欲挑战MySpace。Facebook由一位名叫马克•扎克伯格（Mark Xuckerberg）的学生创建。2004年马克将哈佛大学年度名录（Harvard's yearbook）搬上了因特网。随后，他的创意在耶鲁大学及更多的学校流传开来。现在，Facebook涵盖了美国大部分高校及许多高中。与MySpace来者不拒的作风相反，Facebook为每个大学或学校建立独立而闭合的内部网络，成员必须要获得许可方能连入另一个网络。这使得Facebook所提供的网络空间相对MyFace而言更排外、更安全也更可靠，从而吸引了更多想做大学生生意的商家来Facebook登广告。MySapce的首席执行官克里斯•德沃尔夫（Chris DeWolfe）表示，Facebook的高校市场开发得很好，然而“这也是Facebook的局限所在，（因为）竞争对手能轻而易举地在别国照抄这种运作模式。”

But on September 12th Facebook announced plans to fling open its doors and introduce regional networks for the whole world, open to everyone. “We want to be a universal utility,” says Mr Zuckerberg, who wants to move beyond Facebook's academic niche. Meddling with the formula could prove controversial: last week the firm provoked angry protests when it introduced, and then had to disable, a new feature that issued automatic alerts to users about their friends' activities on the site. The personal nature of the information posted on social-networking sites means users are sensitive to any changes—and wield unusual power as a result.
然而在9月12日，Facebook宣布计划对所有人广开大门，面向大众，将区域性网络推向全世界。欲跨出Facebook现有学院市场的扎克伯格说道， “我们想面向更广泛的市场”。打破惯例可能会引来争议：上周，Facebook一听到这一提议就表示强烈反对，而后，Facebook又取消了一项能自动通知用户其友人在网站之行踪的新功能。社交网络所发布的信息均为用户个人生成，这意味着用户即受制于（网站）的种种变化，也对网站发挥巨大的影响力。

Other networks are not sitting still, either. MySpace is expanding overseas, though it has been overtaken in Britain by Bebo, a rival site popular with teenagers, according to Hitwise, a firm that tracks internet usage. Bebo trails behind MySpace and Facebook in America, but wants to be first or second in English-speaking countries, says Jim Scheinman, its head of business development. Cyworld, the biggest social-networking site in South Korea, recently moved into America and Taiwan and is already available in China and Japan. And Mixi, the dominant site in Japan, went public this week in a spectacular debut on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
其他社交网站也都不甘落后，各显神通。MySpace正在向海外扩张，尽管在英国它已被对手Bebo超越。据一家跟踪因特网使用量的公司Hitwise称，Bebo在青少年间很受欢迎。在美国，Bebo继MySpace和Facebook之后名列第三，而Bebo的业务发展部经理吉姆•谢尔曼（Jim Scheinman）称，Bebo欲在所有英语国家的社交网络中称雄。韩国最大的社交网络网站Cyworld已经已经进入中国和日本市场，目前正进军美国和台湾市场。而日本的Mixi社交网络本周在东京证交所隆重首发。

The newly revived Friendster is aiming at urban professionals in their 20s and 30s. Kent Lindstrom, its new president, says that whereas MySpace is “for people when they want to express their party, fun self, Friendster is more solid—it's where you keep your real friends for life.” But Friendster's greatest strength may be the patent on social-networking it was awarded this year in America. Mr Lindstrom says Friendster is considering its options, which could include sending out “cease and desist” orders to other social networks, or demanding that they pay licence fees. “Friendster probably has a greater opportunity to generate revenue from its patents than from building up its business,” says Kevin Werbach, an expert in technology law at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.
刚刚复苏的Friendster正在开拓面向20至30岁的城区职业人士的市场。 Friendster新总裁肯特•林德斯特伦（Kent Lindstrom）表示，MySpace为“人们提供了放纵、嬉戏的空间；而Friendster更为严肃，在这里你能够同现实生活中的好友保持联系。”然而，Friendster最大的优势是今年获得了美国社交网络服务的专利。林德斯特伦表示，Friendster正在考虑如何行使其权利，包括对其他社交网络发出“停止或终止”命令，或要求这些社交网络缴纳专利费。宾西法尼亚大学沃顿（Wharton）学院科技法专家凯文•韦巴赫（Kevin Werbach） 说道，“ Friendster的专利费收入也许会超过其业务发展之所得。”

Catching up with MySpace will be difficult, because as well as being the largest social network, it is also the most advanced in offering traditional media content. From the beginning, Mr DeWolfe saw it as a new kind of internet portal centred around culture. To that end, MySpace is far more active offline than its rivals. It is running a series of concerts, for instance, in which bands such as The Killers and Primal Scream play to tiny audiences of MySpace users in small venues. (The site's emergence as the MTV of its generation helps to explain why Tom Freston was sacked last week as the boss of Viacom, the media giant that owns MTV. Having fallen behind in this new area, Viacom is said to have considered buying Bebo, but balked at the asking price.)
赶超MySpace是困难的，因为它不但是最大的社交网络，而且提供了高端的传统媒介内容。从一开始，DeWolfe就将社交网络看作围绕不同文化而形成的一种新型的门户网站。因此， MySpace在线下比其对手更为活跃。MySpace举行了一系列音乐会，例如，The Killer与Primal Scream乐队为MySpace用户举行小场演奏会。（MySpace就象当时的MTV公司，这解释了为何控股MTV的媒介巨头Viacom的总裁Tom Freston上周被解雇。Viacom在社交网络新领域处于落后，据说Viacom曾考虑收购Bebo，但询价之后就没了后文。）

The question for MySpace, says Mr Werbach, is whether it can grow into a business on the scale of Yahoo!, eBay or Amazon. Pali Research, an independent research firm in New York, estimates that MySpace had revenues of $150m and made a loss of $50m in the year to June 2006, after making payments to its founders. Pali predicts $300m in revenues and profits of $200m in the year to June 2007, excluding revenue from its deal with Google. Like other social-networking sites, MySpace has not had to advertise itself, and its users provide most of its content, which should produce profit margins.
韦巴赫认为，MySpace的问题在于其业务是否能成长到Yahoo!, eBay 或Amazon那样的规模。美国一家独立经营的研究公司Pali Research预计，MySpace已得收入1亿5千万美元，到2006年6月支付创始人应得报酬后，将面临5千万美元的亏损。Pali还预计到2007年6月，MySpace的收入将为3亿美元，不包括与Google之协议所带来的收入，其利润将为2亿美元。同其他社交网络服务网站一样，MySpace无需为自己做广告，且用户生成网站上大部分的内容，这就产生了利润空间。

Investors used to worry that social networks were just a fad—though such concerns are fading, since MySpace and Facebook seem to be keeping their appeal. A new worry, however, is what could happen if there are cutbacks in advertising spending. Advertisers tend to get out of the newest, least-proven forms of media first, so social networking is vulnerable, says Geoffrey Sands, head of global media and entertainment at McKinsey, a consulting firm. He expects a shakeout among social-networking sites if advertising spending falters, though the strongest will survive.
投资者们常担心的社交网络之流行只是昙花一现的忧虑正逐渐消退，因为MySpace和Facebook 看来魅力不减。而新的担忧涌现出来，如果广告费用锐减会对社交网络产生什么影响？麦肯锡（McKinsey）咨询公司全球传媒及娱乐研究部部长杰弗里•赛兹（Geoffrey Sands）表示，广告客户正逐渐退出这些新兴却未经考验的媒体形态，因此社交网络岌岌可危。他预计，一旦广告收入减少，这些社交网络将出现激烈的淘汰赛，只有强者才能生存。

One defence for social networks is to develop other revenue streams. Last week MySpace announced that it would launch a music-download service later this year. Mr Zuckerberg points to Facebook's self-service marketing business, which charges under $50 for “flyers” on the site—to advertise a local restaurant or a club night—as a kind of advertising that should be immune to trends among big corporate advertisers. As far as their business models go, social-networking sites are still in their teen years, with bags of potential.
社交网络的出路之一是另辟财路。上周，MySpace宣布它将于今年下半年推出音乐下载服务。Facebook的扎克伯格则青睐自助型营销业务。这种业务让当地的餐馆或夜总会花费不到50美元可在Facebook上刊登传单式广告，此类广告将不会随大公司广告客户之趋势逐渐衰退。就其商业模式的现状而言，社交网络服务类网站还相当年轻，未来的发展潜力无穷。

    《贝多芬传》译者序

    唯有真实的苦难，才能驱除罗曼蒂克的幻想的苦难；唯有看到克服苦难的壮烈的悲剧，才能帮助我们担受残酷的命运；唯有抱着“我不如地狱谁入地狱“的精神，才能挽救一个萎靡而自私的民族：这是我十五年前读到本书时所得到教训。

    不经战斗的舍弃是虚伪的，不经劫难磨练的超脱是轻佻的，逃避现实的名哲是卑怯的。中庸、苟且、小智小慧是我们的致命伤；这是我十五年来与日俱增的信念。而这一切都由于贝多芬的启示。

    我不敢把这样的启示自秘，所以十年前就翻译了本书。现在阴霾遮蔽了整个天空，我们比任何时候都更需要精神的支持，比任何时候都需要坚忍、奋斗、敢于向神明挑战的大勇主义。现在，当初生的音乐界只知训练手的技巧，而忘记了培养心灵的神圣工作的时候，这部《贝多芬传》对读者该有更深刻的意义。--由于这个动机，我重译了本书。

    此外，我还有个人的理由。疗治我青年时世纪病的是贝多芬，扶植我在人生中战斗意志的是贝多芬，在我灵智的成长中给我大影响的是贝多芬，多少次的颠扑曾由他搀扶，多少的创伤曾经由他抚慰，--且不说引我进音乐王国的这件次要的恩泽。除了把我所受的恩泽转赠给比我年青的一代之外，我不知道还有什么方法可以偿还我对贝多芬，和对他伟大的传记家罗曼罗兰所负的债务。表示感激的最好的方式，是施予。

    为完成介绍的责任起见，我在译文以外，附加了一篇分析贝多芬作品的文字。我明知道是一件越俎的工作，但望这番力不从心的努力，能够发生抛砖引玉的作用。

    译者
    三十一年三月

       傅雷是我最欣赏的翻译家，罗曼罗兰是我最喜爱的一位作者。本文是罗曼罗兰巨人三传之一《贝多芬传》的译序，开头两段写得非常经典，值得细细体味深思，故摘录于此。

Medicine 医学

Free to flutter
自由博动的心

Sep 7th 2006 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition

A promising new artificial heart wins regulatory approval
一种颇有前景的新型人造心脏通过药审

ARTIFICIAL hearts have long been the stuff of science fiction. In “Robocop”, snazzy cardiac devices are made by Yamaha and Jensen, and in “Star Trek”, Jean-Luc Picard, captain of the Enterprise, has one implanted in the year 2328. In the present day, however, their history has been more chequered. The first serious attempt to build one happened in the 1980s, when Jarvik-7, made by Robert Jarvik, a surgeon at the University of Utah, captured the world's attention. But Jarvik-7 was a complicated affair that needed to be connected via tubes to machines outside the body. The patient could not go home, nor even turn around in bed. Various other designs have been tried since, but all were seen as temporary expedients intended to tide a patient over until the real thing became available from a human donor.
人造心脏一直都是科幻小说中的东西。《铁甲威龙》中时髦的心脏装置是由雅马哈和延森制造；《星际旅行》中“进取号”舰长让.路克•皮卡德（Jean-Luc Picard）在2328年移植了一颗人造心脏。而在现实生活中，人造心脏的历史更为复杂。首次真正制造人造心脏的尝试始于20世纪80年代，当时犹他州大学外科医生罗伯特•贾维克（Robert Jarvik）制造的Jarvik-7举世瞩目。但Jarvik-7的使用相当麻烦：病人不能回家，甚至不能在床上翻身。此后出现了各种不同的设计，但都只是在病人获得捐赠者的真正心脏之前起过渡作用的暂时替代品。

That may be about to change. This week, America's Food and Drug Administration gave its approval to a new type of artificial heart made by Abiomed, a firm based near Boston. The agency granted a “humanitarian device exemption”, a restricted form of approval that will allow doctors to implant the new device in people whose hearts are about to fail but who cannot, for reasons such as intolerance of the immunosuppressive drugs needed to stop rejection, receive a transplant. Such people have a life expectancy of less than a month, but a dozen similarly hopeless patients implanted with Abiomed's heart survived for about five months.
这种情况将有所改变。本周，美国食品与药物管理局通过了位于波士顿附近的Abiomed公司制造的新型人造心脏的审批。食品与药物管理局批准了一项受限的许可 — “人道主义设备豁免”：允许医生在病人的心脏功能开始衰竭，而病人对起抗排斥作用的免疫抑制性药物过敏（或其他诸如此类的原因）的情况下（译注：因此无法接受人体心脏移植手术），为该名病人移植人造心脏。通常这类病人的生命期望（life expectancy）不到一个月，而十多名此类垂危的病人在移植了Abiomed公司的人造心脏之后，活了近五个月。

Unlike Dr Jarvik's device, this newfangled bundle of titanium and polyurethane aims to set the patient free. An electric motor revolving up to 10,000 times a minute pushes an incompressible fluid around the Abiomed heart, and that fluid, in turn, pushes the blood—first to the lungs to be oxygenated, and then around the body. Power is supplied by an electric current generated in a pack outside the body. This induces current in the motor inside the heart. All diagnostics are done remotely, using radio signals. There are no tubes or wires coming out of the patient.
与贾维克博士的设备不同，这种由钛和聚氨酯组成的新设备能给病人带来更多自由。由一个每分钟转速达数万次的马达推动一种不可压缩的液体围绕Abiomed人造心脏流动，然后这种液体再依次推动血液的流动 – 首先将血液送进肺部获取氧气，然后流遍全身。体外的供电设备（对整个人造心脏）进行供电。其中包括了心脏内马达所需的电流。所有的诊断都是远程操作的，使用无线电信号。（因此）病人不需外接任何管子或电线。

The charger is usually plugged into the mains, but if armed with a battery it can be carried around for hours in a vest or backpack, thus allowing the patient to roam freely. Most strikingly, the device's internal battery can last half an hour before it needs recharging. That allows someone time to take a shower or even go for a quick swim without having to wear the charger.
平常，充电器与人造心脏相联接（以供电），但如果病人配备有电池，可以将电池随身携带在背心或背包内，从而使病人能够自由活动。最重要的是，即使在需要充电的情况下，人造心脏的内部电池还可以提供半个小时的电量。这使得病人无需携带充电器，而有足够的时间冲个澡甚至快速游个泳。

Abiomed's chairman, Michael Minogue, does not claim that his firm's product will displace human transplants. Even so, the firm has big ambitions. It is already developing a new version that will be 30% smaller (meaning more women can use it) and will last for five years. That should be ready by 2008—320 years earlier than the writers of “Star Trek” predicted.
虽然Abiomed董事长麦克尔•米诺格（Michael Minogue）并未宣称要用其公司的产品来替代人体心脏移植，但该公司还是雄心勃勃。Abiomed已经在着手研制一种比现有人造心脏小30%的新型产品（这意味着更多女性可以使用此产品），研发期约五年。这种新型产品将于2008面问世，比《星际旅行》的作者所预计的时间提早了320年。

Face value

Ford's new pilot
福特公司的新舵手

Sep 7th 2006
From The Economist print edition

 Alan Mulally jumps from Boeing to rescue America's troubled carmaker
波音公司的艾伦.穆拉利空降福特，以拯救陷入困境的美国汽车制造商

YOUR company is an American icon, being overtaken by pushy competitors. Your top management ranks are thin and you need a turnaround wizard because you can no longer function credibly as chairman, chief executive, president and chief operating officer all at once. Your name may be on the building, but you need help. What do you do, once the two obvious candidates—Dieter Zetsche at DaimlerChrysler and Carlos Ghosn at Renault/Nissan—have turned you down? You look for someone who has rescued another American icon.
设想你的公司是美国的标志，正要被咄咄逼人的竞争者超越。公司的高层经理人手不足，你需要一位精英人士来力挽狂澜，因为你无法再将董事长、首席执行官、总裁以及首席运营官的职位一肩挑。公司的大楼上也许刻有你的名字，不过你需要的是帮助。而两位最佳候选人：戴姆勒-克莱斯勒（DaimlerChrysler）的迪特尔•泽金(Dieter Zetsche)和雷诺日产（Renault/Nissan）的卡洛斯•戈恩（Carlos Ghosn）已经将你拒绝，你会怎么办？你会寻找那个曾挽救过美国另一家标志性企业的人物。

That is how Bill Ford came to choose Alan Mulally, who successfully piloted Boeing's commercial-aircraft group through the hardest time in its history, to replace him as Ford's new president and chief executive. In his 37 years at Boeing, Mr Mulally was twice passed over for the top job. Now he has at last been given the chance to run one of America's top companies. His credentials are impressive. As well as keeping Boeing Commercial profitable amid the storm that broke over aviation in 2001, he also managed to recapture the market leadership lost to Airbus. Can he now work the same magic at Ford?
这就是比尔•福特（Bill Ford）如何选定艾伦•穆拉利（Alan Mulally）接任福特公司的总裁和首席执行官的原因。艾伦曾成功地带领波音民用客机集团渡过其历史上最困难的时期。在他就职波音公司的37年中，穆拉利错过了两次高升的机会。现在，他终于有机会经营美国最好的一家公司。他的资历令人瞩目：他不仅在2001年席卷了航空业的风暴中令波音公司保持盈利，还从空客手中夺回了市场领先的地位。现在，他能否在福特公司创造同样的奇迹呢？

Mr Mulally first made his name running Boeing's 777 programme in the early 1990s. This was the aircraft that was to begin Boeing's recovery after years when its aeroplanes were outshone by the new models rolling out of Airbus's hangars in Toulouse. Having proved himself, he was put in charge of Boeing's commercial-aviation business in September 1998. The division was in chaos. Airbus's A320, a single-aisle aircraft, was eating into Boeing's market share, and the board had decided to take on Airbus in a price war. Demand boomed as both firms started offering heavy discounts. But Boeing could not manage the ramp-up in production. Its suppliers were unable or unwilling to step up the pace because Boeing had mistreated them so often. Aircraft were lying around in Boeing's vast Seattle hangars waiting for parts to arrive. Production had to be halted for a month, resulting in the company's first annual loss in 50 years.
上世纪90年代初，穆拉利在运作波音公司777项目期间崭露头角。此前几年，空客在图卢兹（Toulouse）生产基地陆续推出的几款新机型，令波音公司相形见绌，正是这款777型客机令波音公司重振旗鼓。由于他的能力有目共睹，1998年波音公司任命他掌管民航业务。当时的民航一片混乱。空客的A320正在蚕食波音的市场，而董事会决定要同空客展开价格战。随着双方纷纷大幅降价，市场的需求快速增长。然而波音公司无力应付产量的增长。其供货商不能也不愿加快供货速度，因为波音过去常常亏待他们。那些未完工的客机都停放在波音公司位于西雅图的巨大停机坪内，等待零部件的到来。停工持续了近一个月，导致波音公司50年来第一次年度亏损。

Mr Mulally was brought in to sort out the mess. He set up weekly meetings, which he ran from a video-conference suite next to his office. It was like a war-room, with all the division's main operating data projected on screens. Every Thursday Mr Mulally painstakingly took his executives through every line of figures. He maintained this ritual throughout his tenure, so that he always knew exactly what was going on. An enthusiastic team player and a charismatic leader, Mr Mulally was also regarded by his colleagues as an engineers' engineer, since he based his decisions on hard data rather than vague hunches. He applied the same data-driven approach to his own health as he struggled to fight off a viral infection a few years ago, calling in a nutritionist and becoming a healthy-eating freak. He recovered, bought some smaller suits and has never looked back: he is now a spare figure who looks young for his 61 years.
穆拉利就是被请来收拾这个烂摊子的。他在办公室隔壁的视频会议间每周召开会议。会议间布置得像作战室（war room），投影屏幕上满是各区主营业务的数据。每周四，他都会不辞辛苦地同其管理团队仔细阅读每一行数据。在其任期内，他一直坚持这一习惯，所以他总是清楚的知道公司的经营状况。他既是一位精力充沛的团队合作者，又是一位极具人格魅力的领导者，在同事的眼中，穆拉利还是一位工程师，因为他的决定都是基于铁一般的数据而非模糊的预感。他对自己的健康采用同样数据化的方式：几年前，在他治疗病毒性感染期间，他请来了营养学家，从此养成营养洁癖。他康复之后，整个人瘦了下来，再也没有胖回去：他现在体形高瘦，显得比他61岁的实际年龄要年轻。

Yet Mr Mulally has a ruthless streak. As the industry nose-dived in 2001, he slashed the workforce at Boeing Commercial from 120,000 to 50,000. When Boeing's sales fell behind those at Airbus as the market picked up, he got rid of Toby Bright, his right-hand man for 20 years, and replaced him with Scott Carson. After five years in second place, Boeing snatched market leadership back from Airbus last year. (This week Mr Carson was named as Mr Mulally's successor at Boeing.) Mr Mulally can also be ruthless with his own creations. He killed off the snazzy Sonic Cruiser plane, only 18 months after it had been unveiled in a blaze of publicity. Airlines told him they wanted economy and comfort, not more speed, so Mr Mulally went back to the drawing board to produce something more to their liking.
然而，穆拉利的性格中也有不近人情的一面。由于2001年航空业节节衰退，他毅然将波音公司民航部的员工从12万裁减到5万。当市场行情有所好转，而波音的销售量却落后于空客之时，他又断然将跟随了他20多年的助手托比•布莱特（Toby Bright）撤下，换上了斯科特•卡尔森（Scott Carson）。屈居市场第二五个年头之后，波音终于在去年从空客手中夺回了市场的领先地位。（本周波音公司任命卡尔森为穆拉利的接班人。）对待自己的创作心血，穆拉利同样毫不留情。就在音速巡航者（Sonic Cruiser）客机方案公诸于世18个月之后，他放弃了这款华而不实的客机。各大航空公司告诉穆拉利，他们需要的是经济舒适的飞机，而非高速飞机。因此，穆拉利重新设计航空公司所需要的机型。

Lately he has basked in the success of the new 787 Dreamliner, Boeing's runaway bestseller that arose from the ashes of the Sonic Cruiser. It uses the same composite-material technology to reduce weight and hence fuel consumption. Even more significant, in the light of Mr Mulally's new job, is the drastic change that Boeing Commercial has made to its business model with the 787. The aircraft is being built by a consortium of risk-sharing partners stretching from Italy to Japan.
最近，穆拉利沉浸在新款波音787梦想（Dreamliner）飞机的成功之中。787是波音公司销量最好的一款客机，采用了音速巡航者机型的一些设计：它采用了同样的复合材料技术以减轻机身重量，从而减少耗油量。更重要的是，正是由于穆拉利的新尝试，使波音民航部在生产787型客机过程中采用了大不同于以往的商业运作模式。这款客机由包括意大利和日本的遍布欧洲的合作伙伴组成风险共担的联盟合作生产。

Planes, cars, what's the difference?
飞机，汽车，有何区别？

The big question is whether Mr Mulally's undoubted expertise in aviation can be applied in the car business. There are some similarities. Both are capital-intensive, with long product development times, intricate supply chains and complex manufacturing processes. Indeed, Mr Mulally carefully studied Toyota's world-beating manufacturing in the early 1990s, though it took years before Boeing's factories incorporated much of the “lean manufacturing” philosophy—the 737 factory got a moving final-assembly line only in 2003, 90 years after Henry Ford invented it. But there are differences, too. Airliners are big-ticket items, sold to hard-nosed businesses at a rate of only a 1,000 a year, even in boom times like today. Cars, in contrast, are aspirational consumer items, sold in their millions to individuals through elaborate dealer networks. Boeings are the same wherever they fly; Fords must suit the needs of local markets.
最主要的问题是，穆拉利在航空界不容置疑的专业知识能否被运用到汽车行业中？航空业和汽车业有共通之处。这两个行业都是资金密集型行业，产品开发周期长，供应链复杂，生产流程繁多。其实，穆拉利在20世纪90年代初期就仔细研究过丰田汽车享誉全球的生产模式，但是波音公司花了几年的时间才将丰田的“精益生产（lean manufacturing）”理念融进其实际生产之中。且生产波音737的工厂直至2003年才采用流水线制造模式，较之亨瑞.福特（Henry Ford）的发明晚了90年。然而，这两个行业也存在区别。飞机是高价商品，销售给精明实际的企业客户，即使在目前经济繁荣时期，每年的销量仅为千余架。与此相反，汽车属高档消费品，通过精密的经销商网络销售给个体消费者，年销量达数百万辆。波音飞机不论销往何地都是同样的产品；而福特汽车必须因地制宜。

Mr Mulally's first task at Ford's glass-walled headquarters in Dearborn will be to examine how the company has managed to become so cut off from its customers. In the five years since Mr Ford took the helm, the company's domestic market share has fallen from 25% to about 17%. Ford lost over $1.3 billion in the first half of this year. Later this month the board will meet to review plans to speed up the turnaround in its chronically loss-making American business. But Ford needs more than just a dose of strong medicine. Its divided, dispirited managers also need decisive leadership. The chief attribute Mr Mulally brings is his strength as a corporate chief. His combination of charisma and toughness could be precisely what Ford needs.
穆拉利在位于迪尔伯恩的福特总部的首要任务是调查福特为何失宠于客户。在比尔.福特掌权的五年之中，福特公司的美国市场份额从25%跌至17%。而今年上半年，福特公司的亏损超过13亿美元。本月末，董事会将讨论加快步伐扭转福特公司的长期亏损的美国业务的方案。然而，福特需要的不仅是一针强心剂。福特公司四分五裂、士气低落的经理们更需要一位坚决果断的领导。而穆拉利的主要特征正是他作为公司领袖所表现出来的意志力，其领袖气质加上刚毅果断，也许正合福特公司之需。

Philosophy
哲学

A rather lengthy conversation
一次冗长的交谈

Sep 7th 2006
From The Economist print edition

FEW writers of fiction have matched Michael Frayn's success with both novels and drama. In the 1960s his first two novels won major prizes, and his latest one, “Spies”, took the Whitbread novel award in 2002. His two most recent plays, “Copenhagen”, about a meeting between two of the founders of quantum mechanics, and “Democracy”, about the East German spy who worked for Willy Brandt, are just as popular as his light comedies once were. His latest offering is a magnum opus on philosophy. In 1974, he published “Constructions”, a collection of philosophical observations which turned out to be whimsical and a flop. But now that he is practically a grand old man of English letters, Mr Frayn's second venture into metaphysical waters is serious stuff.

很少有小说家能与迈克尔.弗莱恩（Michael Frayn）在小说和戏剧两方面所取得的成功相媲美。弗莱恩的头两本小说在上个世纪六十年代赢得两项大奖，而他最新的一部小说《间谍》赢得2002年度的惠布瑞特最佳好书奖（the Whitbread novel award）。他最新的两部戏剧《哥本哈根》（有关量子力学两位奠基人的一次会面）和《民主》（关于一名为维利•勃兰特（Willy Brandt）卖命的东德间谍），同他的轻喜剧那样广受欢迎。他的最新作品是一部关于哲学的巨著。他于1974年出版的《释义集（Constructions）》是一部哲学评论系列著作，结果被视为奇想怪论，成为他的一大败笔。而今他作为英国作家中德高望重的长者，其再度涉入哲学领域的这部作品是相当严肃的。

“The Human Touch” is about a question which Mr Frayn says has puzzled him for most of his adult life. How much of man's conception of the world reflects an independent reality, and how much of it is made up by us? We are faced, he thinks, with a paradox. On the one hand, we know that when mankind ceases to exist, “the universe will go on as if we had never been”. On the other hand, we know (or so he says) that “if we go, so does everything”. As a peg on which to hang a tour through many parts of the far-flung empire of philosophy, this dilemma is perhaps as promising as any. But Mr Frayn is far too sensible and modest a British sort of chap to embrace its second horn with much enthusiasm. He knows that pretty much everything will in fact continue perfectly well without him or indeed anybody.

《人性论》探讨了一个困扰了弗莱恩大半辈子的问题：人们的世界观在多大程度上反映了独立存在的现实，又有多大程度是我们自己的杜撰？他认为我们都面临一个悖论：一方面，我们知道如果人类不复存在，“宇宙还将延续下去，一如我们从未存在过。”另一方面，我们也知道（他也这样说）“如果我们不存在，一切也都不存在了。”  他带着这个发人深思的悖论游历哲学王国的广袤疆土。然而，弗莱恩是这样一位极度敏感而谦逊的英国人，他没有对自己再度涉入哲学领域投以过多热忱。他知道，无论是他或者任何一人不存在了，世上的一切事物还是会安然无恙地继续下去。

So what he tries to do is extract kernels of truth from the varieties of subjectivism. One area in which to attempt this is quantum mechanics, which is widely believed to set severe and baffling limits to an objective conception of the world. Mr Frayn frankly admits that he is no expert in the field and must rely on popular accounts of which he understands only a fraction. It is a little unnerving to read popularisations of partly digested popularisations. But his light touch and abundant common sense make his efforts to navigate parallel universes and the other exotica that are the stock in trade of this genre a refreshing novelty—at least for some of the time.

因此，他所做的是从各种主观主义思想之中萃取真理的精华。量子力学是他做此尝试的一个领域，因为人们普遍认为这一学科对于人们对世界的客观看法设置了严苛而深奥的限制。弗莱恩坦言他并非量子力学领域的专家，必须依赖量子力学的一些通俗解释，而即使是这些通俗解释他也仅能理解一部分。阅读这样一份基于对一份通俗读物的一知半解而著述的通俗读物，是令人不安的。然而，他对深奥理论的浅尝辄止以及他丰富的生活常识使得他的作品在两类读者群中（译注：理论读者群和通俗读者群）得以流传，也为这类作品所常用写作手法带来一些新意 – 至少在某些时候是这样 。

As one might expect from a journalist and translator, the sections on language are particularly engaging. And as one might expect from a brilliant crafter of farces, a delightful wit regularly peeps through the thickets. Yeswell Sortov, a fictitious and vague philosopher, is a fine invention. And Mr Frayn's suggestion that one purported solution to the puzzles of quantum mechanics (namely the so-called “many-worlds interpretation”) is analogous to invoking elves and pixies to solve the “disappearing-sock problem” of domestic laundry is well done.

正如人们对一名记者及译者所期望的那样，这部作品的语言格外地生动。也如人们对一名喜剧作家所期望的那样，这部复杂的作品中时不时地透出令人愉悦的风趣。作品中那位杜撰的哲学家 （Yeswell Sortov）是作者的精心构造。而弗雷恩用一个传说的解答来解释量子力学之谜（也就是“多世界诠释（many-worlds interpretation）”），同邀请小精灵来解决家中洗衣间“袜子丢失之谜”有异曲同工之妙。

But at more than 400 pages, plus 60 more of dense footnotes, the book is too long to be saved by whimsical interjections. More focus would have helped: there is not enough theme, and too many variations. Mr Frayn's characteristic modesty seems to prevent him from driving his argument all that hard. He says that he intends the book as an exploration conducted together with his gentle readers—more a conversation than a tract. Perhaps he should have written it as a play.

然而，这本400多页的正文再加上60多页密集的脚注的书实在太冗长，即使书中间或出现的有趣的插曲也无法弥补。如果书中重点更明确一些也许更有益：书的主题不明确，且变化太多。弗雷恩谦逊的性格使得他未能将自己的论点坚持到底。他表示，这本书更像是他同友善的读者们展开的一次探索，一段交谈，而非一本论著。也许他本该以剧本的形式来写这本书。