North Korea blasts away hopes of engagement
朝鲜核试验炸毁了六方会谈的希望
Oct 9th 2006 | TOKYO
From Economist.com
The isolated state comes of age as a nuclear power, but the consequences could be all negative for Kim Jong Il
孤立的朝鲜成为有核国家，而结果对金正日完全不利
FOLLOWING through on a promise it made in the United Nations only last week, North Korea exploded a nuclear device on Monday October 9th deep under a mountain in north-eastern Hamgyong province. The regime of Kim Jong Il immediately declared that its nuclear test would serve to defend “the peace and stability on the Korean pensinsula and in the area around it.” On the contrary, the provocation has brought international condemnation and destabilised regional security, even raising the prospect of an arms race in which neighbours such as Japan and South Korea may consider developing nuclear weapons of their own.
紧接着上周在联合国作出的承诺，朝鲜于周一（10月9日）在平壤东北部一座山脉地下深处爆破了一部核弹装置。金正日（Kim Jong Il）政府即刻宣布朝鲜的核试验是为了保卫“朝鲜半岛及其周边地区的和平与安全”。恰恰相反，此举招来了国际谴责，瓦解了当地的安全，甚至引起周边地区的军备竞赛的可能，例如日本、韩国可能考虑发展自己的核武器。
In the near term, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are more likely to pose a greater risk to North Koreans than to the neighbours. The country is reckoned to have reprocessed enough weapons-grade plutonium to make several bombs (it has also admitted to a programme for enriching uranium). The bombs, however, are fairly crude—in the underground test, the nuclear reaction was probably triggered by a large conventional charge. Such a bomb, in other words, is not easily transportable; North Korea is still some way from being able to miniaturise nuclear weapons to use on missiles or even to drop from planes. Unusual means of delivery, such as a shipping container, would be needed if North Korea’s were to be used in anger. So the immediate threats from North Korea’s new capability come from radioactive leaks into the atmosphere and North Korea’s groundwater.
在近期，朝鲜的核能力给自身所带来的风险比其周边地区要更大。国际社会认为朝鲜所重加工的武器级钚已足够制造多枚核弹（朝鲜还承认在进行铀浓缩项目）。然而，这些核弹相当原始：在地下实验中，核反应也许由一个硕大的传统引爆装置激发。换句话说，这样一枚核弹不易移动；朝鲜距离制造出可用于导弹，甚至空投的小型核弹还有一定差距。一旦将朝鲜激怒，朝鲜恐怕要使用像集装箱海运这样非比寻常的方式来运输核弹。因此，朝鲜核能力最直接的威胁在于核辐射对空气或朝鲜的地下水的污染。
Yet an early international consequence of the test is likely to be the swift burial of the so-called six-party talks, involving China, South Korea, Japan, America and Russia. These talks, which have staggered on for ages, were meant to forestall North Korea going nuclear, dangling aid and security guarantees before Mr Kim’s ghastly regime in return for a verifiable dismantling of his nuclear programmes. However, the multilateral diplomacy that this forum offered never worked. China, not wanting North Korean problems to spill over the Chinese border, and South Korea, wedded to engagement at almost any cost, feared that putting pressure on North Korea would lead to instability. Meanwhile, the administration of President George Bush, though occasionally sounding tough, allowed the six-party talks to drift, its mind on challenges elsewhere, notably Iraq. Most of all, Mr Kim himself, though blaming America for tensions, had no intention of giving up his nuclear programmes.
然而，朝鲜核试验在国际社会最先引起的后果可能是迅速地终结了所谓的六方会谈，其中包括中国、韩国、日本、美国和俄罗斯。徘徊数年未果的六方会谈旨在阻止朝鲜开展核试验，以物资援助和安全保障为饵，要求金正日拿出可靠证据来证明朝鲜销毁了核计划。然而，该会谈的多国外交政策从未奏效。中国不希望朝鲜问题滑出中国的掌控范围；韩国几乎不惜一切代价达成协议，担心对朝鲜施压会对韩国造成不稳定。与此同时，布什政府尽管偶尔姿态强硬，但还是任由六方会谈流产，因为其注意力集中在别的地方，尤其是伊拉克。最主要的是，金正日尽管谴责美国制造紧张气氛，但他本人并没有放弃核计划的意图。
Here, Mr Kim, feeling the pinch of financial sanctions and dissatisfied with the region he sees outside his brutalised country—a region that is prosperous, capitalist and policed by American might—may have miscalculated. Rather than increasing North Korea’s advantage, its new nuclear capability may unite opposition. China, already angry at North Korea’s missile tests in July (in an unprecedented step, it signed on to a UN resolution condemning North Korea and imposing limited sanctions), lambasted its nuclear test. South Korea’s “sunshine policy” towards the north now seems very hard to sustain—on October 9th the government halted a shipment of food and put troops on high alert. Meanwhile, North Korea’s provocations have made it much easier for Japan’s new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to bury longstanding differences on summit trips to Beijing and Seoul on October 8th and 9th. Neighbours now have a common desire to stop the potential instability—economic as well as military—that a nuclear North Korea might bring.
金正日感觉到金融制裁的压力，也对他所见的、在他残酷统治国家之外的世界感到不满，那个世界经济繁荣、资本主义盛行，且由美国强权维护治安。采取此举，金正日也许打错了算盘。朝鲜的新核能力非但没有为朝鲜带来优势，而且可能使其对立势力联合起来。中国依然对朝鲜7月份的导弹试射感到不满（史无前例地签署了联合国决议，谴责朝鲜，并对其施以一定制裁），对朝鲜的核试验严加斥责。韩国对朝鲜的“阳光政策”现在看来也难以维持 – 10月9日，韩国政府终止了对朝鲜的食物运输，并安置部队高度戒备。与此同时，朝鲜的挑衅将使日本新首相安倍晋三于10月8号和9号前往北京和汉城的首脑会面中，更容易放下存在已久的分歧。朝鲜的这些邻国如今有一个共同愿望，要制止朝鲜核试验可能带来的经济上的，以及军事上的不安定因素。
The action will now move to the UN Security Council. Australia has already said it will advocate tougher UN sanctions against North Korea, blocking North Korean funds and limiting the ability of North Koreans to travel. America will certainly push for the tougher policing of ships and planes that might be carrying weapons technology. More efforts will be made to go after Mr Kim’s own business empire, known as Division 39, that is crucial to the dictator for keeping the North Korean regime sweet. Countries with diplomatic relations may withdraw ambassadors. Already, the international attitude towards Mr Kim is turning from half-hearted engagement to what is already being called “malign neglect”.
这一行动现已移交联合国安理会。澳大利亚已然表示将支持联合对朝鲜更为严厉的制裁，阻止对朝鲜的资金援助，限制朝鲜人的出境旅游资格。美国无疑将对朝鲜可能载有武器的船只飞机采取更严厉的措施。国际社会还将采取更多措施对付金正日自己的商业王国，名为“三十九支部”(Division 39)，此部门对于朝鲜政权的独裁者至关重要。那些与朝鲜建立外交的国家将撤回派驻朝鲜的大使。国际社会对金正日的态度已经从三心二意的敷衍转变为现在的“恶意忽略（malign neglect）”。
posted @ 2006-10-11 12:47
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编辑 收藏North Korea's dangerous game
Oct 4th 2006
From Economist.com
Kim Jong Il's dictatorial regime, under intense financial pressure, is threatening to test a nuclear bomb
在巨大的财政压力之下，金正日的独裁政权要挟要进行核弹试验。
NORTH KOREA has few cards to play in international politics. Yet the isolated communist state is now brandishing what appears to be its ace, saying it will test a nuclear weapon and spreading disquiet in Asia and beyond. This week’s threat, apparently designed to prove a claim made last year that the country has nuclear weapons, marks a serious escalation of tension. It follows the test-launch of several missiles in July, one of which (though it failed in the test) was thought to have the range to hit Alaska.
在国际政治中，朝鲜没有几张牌可打。然而，这个孤立的共产党国家正挥舞着她的王牌，扬言将要试发一枚核武器，这在亚洲及其周边引起了不安。朝鲜在本周发出的这个威胁显然是为了证实去年该国所宣称的拥有核武器的说法，这标志着紧张局面的严重升级。此前在7月份，朝鲜试射了几枚导弹，其中一枚的射程原预计远达美国阿拉斯加州，不过试发失败。
It is unclear whether North Korea under its dictator, Kim Jong Il, really intends to conduct a nuclear test soon, but some say preparations have been underway for months. Mr Kim craves international attention and may be banging his drum now for various reasons. He wants to put pressure on a United States government preoccupied by mid-term elections at home, distracted by violence in Iraq and struggling to deter Iran from building its own nuclear weapons. (Mr Kim may possibly disapprove of the likely selection of South Korea’s foreign minister, Ban Ki-moon, as the UN’s new secretary-general.) Making trouble when America is distracted and widely stretched may be Mr Kim’s way to extract concessions from the superpower.
在独裁者金正日（Kim Jong Il）领导之下的朝鲜是否打算于近期进行核武器试验尚不清楚，不过有人称准备工作已进行了几个月。金正日渴望得到国际关注，而目前有好几个原因可能促使他采取大动作。美国忙于国内中期大选、受到伊拉克暴力事件干扰，且正致力于阻止伊朗制造核武器，朝鲜希望借此举向美国政府施压。（也许金正日不赞成韩国外长潘基文（Ban Ki-moon）有望当选联合国秘书长。）金正日也许想在美国精力分散且身担数任之时制造麻烦，以取得这个超级强权的妥协让步。
The nuclear threat is being taken seriously. Mr Kim’s regime is not near collapse, but it is under severe pressure, suffering strains at home because of poor harvests and floods and increasing isolation abroad. After the missile tests in July, the UN’s Security Council agreed to slap sanctions on North Korea. Even China, long-reluctant to put serious pressure on its neighbour, supported the UN resolution.
国际社会严肃地看待朝鲜的核威胁。金正日政府虽不至濒临瓦解，但面临着严峻的压力，承受着国内因粮食歉收、爆发洪水以及与国际社会日益脱节的种种巨大压力。自朝鲜于7月份进行导弹试射之后，联合国安理会同意对朝鲜施以制裁。就连中国也支持这个联合国决议，此前中国一直不愿意对其邻国朝鲜施以重压。
The country's official news agency said this week that a nuclear test would be a reaction to American threats. The threat is also a response to year-old financial sanctions, led by America, designed to crackdown on North Korea’s illegal efforts to get hold of hard-currency. These include traffic in illegal drugs, counterfeiting of legal drugs (like Viagra) and forging dollars, euros and yen. These are thought to be crucial to Mr Kim’s ability to keep control at home, letting him spread favours and pay for private luxuries. North Korea’s already limping economy is suffering too, as banks that once helped launder money for the communist state, for example in Macau, have frozen its accounts.
本周，朝鲜官方新闻机构报道称，核试验将是朝鲜对美国威胁的回应。朝鲜的这一威胁同时也是为了回应由美国牵头的、长达一年之久的金融制裁。这些制裁措施旨在打击朝鲜为获取硬通货所采用的非法手段：其中包括运输非法毒品、伪造合法药品（例如伟哥Viagra）以及制造假币，包括美元、欧元以及日元。这些手段对于金正日在国内保持控制地位、散布恩泽以及维系个人奢靡的生活至关重要。朝鲜已然疲软的经济也正受此影响，因为曾经帮朝鲜政府洗黑钱的那些银行，比如澳门的银行，已经冻结了该国的账户。
Reactions to North Korea’s latest threat have been swift. America’s secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, called it “provocative”. Japan had already taken a more assertive line towards North Korea after the missile tests in July. Its new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, told parliament on Wednesday that his country “could not accept” a nuclear test in North Korea. South Korea's response was unusually strong. The country went on a higher security alert, and a foreign-ministry spokesman said it would not “tolerate” a nuclear test.
世界各国对朝鲜刚刚发出的威胁反映不尽相同。美国国务卿康多莉扎.赖斯（Condoleezza Rice）称此举为“挑衅”。日本在朝鲜7月份导弹试验之后就已对朝鲜采取了更主动的线路。周三，日本新首相安倍晋三（Shinzo Abe）告知议会，日本“不能接受”朝鲜的核试验。韩国的反应异常强烈。该国继续采取更高级别的安全戒备，其外交部发言人称韩国不会“容忍”朝鲜的核试验。
China’s government has appealed for calm, but is also keen to deter North Korea from conducting a test, fearing that Japan may otherwise be encouraged to seek nuclear weapons itself. There are signs of growing Chinese pressure on North Korea. China has some leverage over its neighbour, absorbing the largest share of North Korea’s paltry exports (about a third) and providing aid and energy in return. The Chinese are furious with North Korea over the missile tests in July. Some reports suggest the quantities of food and oil that China ships to its poor neighbour have been cut. Observers are also struck that China supported the Security Council resolution on North Korea and quietly imposed some financial sanctions of its own.
中国政府虽然看似反应平静，但也急切地要阻止朝鲜开展核试验，因为中国担心此举可能会促使日本研制自己的核武器。有迹象表明，中国对朝鲜的影响力日益增强。中国队与邻国朝鲜确有一些影响力，她吸纳了朝鲜最大份额的小商品出口（约占三分之一），并提供经济援助和能源支持作为回报。对于朝鲜7月份的导弹试射，中国格外愤怒。有报道暗示说从中国运往其贫困邻国朝鲜的粮食和石油已经有所削减。中国支持安理会对朝鲜的决议，并静悄悄地自行采取了一些经济制裁，这给观察家们也留下了深刻的印象。
What will happen next is unclear. Americans and others will be pleased that Mr Kim is feeling that heat as North Korea’s counterfeiting activities are stopped. China and South Korea offer some limited leverage on Mr Kim’s regime. China is hinting that a return to stalled talks that include America, Japan, North and South Korea, may be the only way to negotiate a resolution.
朝鲜的下一步举动将是核武器。美国及其他国家将感到欣慰，因为金正日对于朝鲜制造假币的热情已经结束。中韩两国国提供有限的影响力来约束金正日政府。中国暗示说，也许重新开展包括美国、日本、朝鲜和韩国在内的业已停滞的六方会谈，才是达成一项决议的唯一途径。
posted @ 2006-10-11 12:45
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编辑 收藏The Nobel science prizes
The little and large show
世界大小观
Oct 5th 2006
From The Economist print edition
This year's Nobel science prizes have been awarded for cosmology and two sorts of genetics
今年的诺贝尔科学奖已颁发给一项宇宙学研究及两项遗传学研究
WELL, the waiting is over for another year. The great and good of Sweden's Royal Academy of Science and of the country's principal medical school, the Karolinska Institute, have deliberated. The laurels have been assigned, if not yet awarded (that happens in December). And the disappointed will no longer have to cling to their telephones like politicians hoping for a ministerial posting. With much fanfare, the Nobel science prizes have been announced.
一年的等待结束了。瑞典皇家科学院（Sweden's Royal Academy of Science）和瑞典最重要的医学院卡罗林斯卡研究院（Karolinska Institute）的那些卓越杰出之人士已经详细商讨。诺贝尔奖之殊荣虽然尚未颁发，但已经名花有主。而那些未能获奖的失望人士不再需像政客那样紧守电话，期待一个政府职位（ministerial posting）。因为诺贝尔科学奖已经在一片喧嚣之中公之于众。
This year, the prize committees have done well. They have managed to pick winners who, if not exactly household names, have at least done work that has had some resonance in the wider world. The physics prize is for a piece of research that has enabled cosmologists to map the universe as it was before the first star formed. The physiology prize (or “prize for physiology or medicine”, as it is known in the citation) is for the discovery of a phenomenon called RNA interference, which helps cells fight off viral infections and is widely touted as a possible basis for a new class of drugs. The chemistry prize is for a piece of X-ray crystallography, a favourite subject of the academy's prize committees over the decades, and a way of awarding an extra physiology prize (since X-ray crystallography is used mainly to examine large biological molecules) without confessing that much of the intellectual oomph has gone out of chemistry in the century since Alfred Nobel, himself a chemist, drew up his will.
今年，诺贝尔颁奖委员会干得不错。他们所选出的获奖者即使不是家喻户晓的人物，至少这些获奖者所作的研究也能在社会上引起更广泛的共鸣。诺贝尔物理学奖颁给了一项宇宙研究，该研究能令宇宙学家绘制出第一颗恒星形成之前宇宙的情形。诺贝尔生理学奖（也就是大家所熟知的“诺贝尔生理学或医学奖”）颁给了一个名为核糖核酸干扰（RNA interference）现象的发现。核糖核酸干扰能帮助细胞战胜病毒性感染，被广泛地吹捧做可能为一种新型药物的基础。诺贝尔化学奖颁给了X射线结晶法（X-ray crystallography），这是诺贝尔颁奖委员会数十年来都很感兴趣的一个项目，也相当于生理学奖的一项额外奖励（因为X射线晶体学主要用于检测大的生物分子），无需言明，自化学家阿弗雷得˙诺贝尔（Alfred Nobel）拟订其遗嘱以来，许多科学精英出自化学领域。
And the winners are
花落谁家
The physics prize went to John Mather of America's National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and George Smoot of the University of California, Berkeley. Together, they were responsible for discovering irregularities in the microwave radiation formed soon after the beginning of the universe, and which bathes the universe to this day.
美国国家航天航空局（America's National Aeronautics and Space Administration，NASA）的约翰.马瑟 （John Mather）和加州大学伯克利分校（University of California, Berkeley）的乔治.史莫特（George Smoot）荣获诺贝尔物理学奖。他们共同发现了在宇宙开始之初所形成的微波辐射的不规则性，这些射线至今还充满于宇宙之间。
The cosmic microwave background, as this radiation is known, began its journey about 300,000 years after the Big Bang in which everything started. When discovered, it appeared to be perfectly uniform. Some researchers, however, reasoned that it ought to carry imprints of the slight concentrations of matter that must have existed in the early universe if structures such as galaxies—and eventually stars and planets—were going to form. These concentrations would have acted as gravitational nuclei, drawing in gas from their surroundings and thus forming galaxies.
这种辐射被称为宇宙微波背景（cosmic microwave background），形成于万物开端的宇宙大爆炸之后约30万年。当人们发现这种辐射时，它呈现出相当规则的形态。因此，一些研究者推断，如果那些天体结构，如星系，甚至恒星及行星要想形成，这些辐射应当携有那些于宇宙形成之初必然存在的少量物质浓缩（concentration）的印迹。这些浓缩将作用为重力核心（gravitational nuclei），将其周围的气体聚拢起来，从而形成星系。
To test this idea, NASA built and launched a satellite called the Cosmic Background Explorer. Dr Mather ran the instrument on this satellite that looked for telltale variations in the microwave background, and Dr Smoot analysed the results, which were published in 1992. Their work, and subsequent refinements of it using a second satellite called the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, not only showed the ultimate roots of galaxies, it also provided evidence that the early universe underwent a sudden, massive expansion known as inflation.
为证实这一想法，美国国家航天航空局建造并发行了一颗名为宇宙背景探测器（Cosmic Background Explorer）的人造卫星。马瑟博士通过操控安装在这颗卫星上的设备来寻找背景辐射的变化，而史莫特博士分析了在1992年公布的这些结果。他们的这些研究，以及随后使用第二颗卫星威尔金森微波各向异性探测器（Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe）对这一理论所作的完善，不仅证实了星系最根本的起源，也为早期宇宙曾经历过一次突然的、大规模的扩张 - 也叫膨胀 - 提供了证据。
Andrew Fire, of Stanford University, and Craig Mello, of the University of Massachusetts, were not the first people to notice the phenomenon now known as RNA interference, but they were the first to have an inkling about what was happening. The observation they built on, first made in plants, and then extended to animals, was that the activity of individual genes can be silenced by versions of a molecule called RNA. This substance is similar to DNA (the chemical difference is in the group of atoms employed to stand as one of the four chemical “letters” of the genetic alphabet). The main physical difference is that RNA's molecules usually come in single strands, unlike those of DNA, the material of the genes, which are usually double-stranded (the famous double helix).
斯坦福大学的安德鲁.法尔（Andrew Fire）和马萨诸塞州立大学（University of Massachusetts）的克雷格.梅洛（Craig Mello）并非最早注意到核糖核酸干涉（RNA interference）现象的人，但他们是最早对核糖核酸干涉现象有一些了解的人。他们起初初对植物进行观测，然后扩展到动物。他们观察到单个基因的活动可以被一种叫做核糖核酸（RNA）的分子所抑制。核糖核酸与脱氧核糖核酸（DNA）类似。其化学上的差异在于用于代表来自基因字母表的四个化学“字母”之一的原字组不同。物理形态上的主要差异在于RNA的分子通常以单链形式存在，与构成基因的DNA不同，后者通常为双链（也就是著名的双螺旋结构）。
One of RNA's jobs in the cell is to act as a messenger: RNA copies of DNA genes are translated into protein molecules in cellular structures called ribosomes. In a nutshell, what Dr Fire and Dr Mello found, in 1998, was that what silences genes is adding double-stranded versions of their RNA messengers to the mix. This stimulates the formation of what are known as RISC complexes, which carry part of the double-stranded RNA around as a reference, and destroy any RNA that matches it.
RNA在细胞中的一项任务就是担当信使之职。RNA将所复制DNA基因信息转化到蛋白质分子中的那些核糖体的分子结构中。1998年法尔博士和梅洛博士发现，增加双链形态的RNA信使能够起到抑制基因的作用。这一发现导致了RNA诱导沉默复合体（RISC complexes）的形成，RNA诱导沉默复合体携带了一小段双链结构的RNA作为参考，并能摧毁何与之吻合的RNA。
The reason, from the cell's point of view, for doing this, is that healthy animal and plant cells never make double-stranded RNA. On the other hand, many viruses do. Recognising and destroying double-stranded RNA is thus a safe way of attacking infection. Whether that insight can be turned into drugs remains to be seen. But many are trying, and billions of dollars rest on their success.
从细胞角度而言，此举的原因在于健康的动植物细胞从不制造双链的RNA。换句话说，许多病毒细胞带有双链RNA。因此，识别并摧毁双链RNA是打击这些传染病毒的安全之道。这一深入的理解能否转变为药物还有待观察。但许多人已经在进行尝试，如若成功，将带来几十亿美元的收入。
Roger Kornberg, the winner of the chemistry prize, and another member of the faculty of Stanford University, studied the process by which genes are copied into RNA in the first place. This is done by an enzyme called RNA polymerase, which binds to the DNA and runs along one of the strands of the double helix. Each time it comes to a new chemical letter on the strand it is reading, it reconfigures itself to add a complementary letter to the RNA molecule it is creating.
诺贝尔化学奖获得者罗杰·考恩伯格（Roger Kornberg）也是斯坦福大学的教员，他所研究的是基因信息最初复制到RNA中的过程。这一过程由一种名为核糖核酸聚合酶（RNA polymerase）的酶实现，它附着在DNA上，并沿着DNA的双链结构移动。每次接触到一个双链上的新化学字母，它会读出这个字母，并对自身重新调配，在它所创建的RNA分子中增加一个互补的字母。
Dr Kornberg worked out the details by crystallising the complex of DNA, RNA and polymerase at various stages of the process. He then photographed each version of the complex with X-rays.
考恩伯格博士通过对此过程中各个阶段的DNA、RNA和聚合酶的复合体进行结晶，研究出这一过程的详细情况。然后，他用X射线拍下各个阶段的复合体的照片。
That process of X-ray crystallography, which calls for a lot of complex mathematics rather than the mere creation of a photographic image, was invented by two Britons, Sir William Bragg and his son Lawrence. They jointly won the Nobel prize for physics in 1915. Coincidentally, Dr Kornberg's father, Arthur, is also a Nobel laureate. He won the physiology prize in 1959 for working out the details of how DNA is synthesised. Whether such familial talent is a matter of nature or nurture will, no doubt, be the subject of a future prize.
X射线结晶法（X-ray crystallography）的过程要求不仅需要照出图片，更需要进行大量复杂的数学计算，这一方法由两名英国人威廉姆斯.布瑞格爵士（Sir William Bragg）和他的儿子劳伦斯发明。他们共同获得了1915年的诺贝尔物理学奖。无独有偶，考恩伯格博士的父亲亚瑟（Arthur）也是诺贝尔奖获得者。他因研究出DNA合成过程的细节而获得了1959年的诺贝尔生理学奖。而这样家族式的天赋究竟是由于遗传天性还是后天养育无疑将成为将来诺贝尔奖项的研究课题。
posted @ 2006-10-11 12:43
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