China, India Urged to Shun Western-Style Waste
Emad Mekay

中国与印度急需避免西式消耗

WASHINGTON, Jan 11 (IPS) - The rising economic powers of India and China, and their appetite for raw materials, could pose the "gravest threats" to the world's ecological health if they fail to follow a conservation-based development model, warn two studies released here.

华盛顿，1月11日（国际新闻社）----华盛顿两项研究警告：印度与中国如不能遵循基于保护的发展模式，两国经济力量的崛起及其对原材料的需求会对全球生态健康构成“最严重的威胁” 。

According to the latest edition of the Worldwatch Institute's annual "State of the World" report, published Wednesday in Washington, the two Asian giants, with their huge populations, are fast joining the United States and Europe as superpowers whose voracious demands on the world's resources will eventually exceed those of developed nations.

根据华盛顿特区环境保护机构世界观察研究院(Worldwatch Institute) 周三发表的年度“世界状况”（"State of the World"）报告最新一期，人口众多的亚洲大国印度和中国正迅速加入美国、欧洲超级大国的行列， 其对世界资源的巨大需求最终会超过发达国家。

 Though their per capita resource consumption is still low, the two countries, especially China, are bringing heavy pressure on resources because of their commodity-intensive manufacturing activities.

尽管中国和印度的人均资源消耗额仍较低，两国尤其是中国因其商品密集型制造业正给资源带来沉重压力。

Both nations need to be watched closely as they make their economic and political choices in the future, the Institute's 2006 report says.

该研究院2006报告指出，需密切关注两国今后所做的经济政治决策。

"Rising demand for energy, food and raw materials by 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians is already having ripple effects worldwide," said Worldwatch President Christopher Flavin at the launch of the report.
世界观察研究院院长Christopher Flavin在报告发布时说，“25亿中国人和印度人对能源、粮食与原材料日益增长的需求在全球产生连锁反应。”

Like many recent publications in the industrialised countries that have warned against the economic rise of India and China, the 244-page report says that the past two years offered a worrisome preview of a future in which China and India follow the economic model of Western nations, notorious for their unchecked consumption patterns.
与许多工业化国家近期发表的对印度与中国经济崛起发出警告的文章一样，这篇244页的报告指出：过去两年令人们对未来忧心忡忡，隐约可见中国与印度将会遵循西方国家的经济模式，而这种模式以其毫无节制的消耗臭名昭著。

The report notes that China's economy has averaged a 9.5 percent growth rate. Last year, the country consumed 26 percent of the world's crude steel, 32 percent of the rice, 37 percent of the cotton and 47 percent of the cement. It says that soaring oil and other commodities prices show the strains on the world's resource base because of demands from India and China.
报告提到，中国经济平均增长率为9.5%。2005年，中国消耗了全球26%的粗钢，32%的稻米，37%的棉花及47%的水泥。报告指出，油价以及其他日用品价格飞涨表明印度与中国的需求造成资源基础处于紧张状态。

India has rising car ownership levels and expanding highways, and is spending heavily on airports, roads and ports. Its use of oil has doubled since 1992. China, which was oil-sufficient in the mid-1990s, was the second largest oil importer in 2004.

印度汽车拥有水平提高，建造高速公路，而且不惜重金建机场、公路和港口。印度石油消耗量与1992年相比翻了一番。20世纪90年代中期中国石油自给自足，而2004年成为第二大石油进口国。

The report's authors also point a finger at the two nations for increasing demands on Africa's forests and fisheries, flourishing export markets in soybeans and mineral ores from South America and Southeast Asia, and the loss of semi-skilled manufacturing jobs in Central America and Southeast Asia.
报告著者们也指责两国对美洲森林和渔业胃口越来越大，来自南美和东南亚的大豆与矿石出口市场欣欣向荣，以及中美洲和东南亚失去了半技术性制造业就业机会。

The world's resources cannot sustain the combined demands of Western nations and the two Asian giants, especially because the dominant global economic model is resource-intensive, the report argues.

报告认为，全球资源不能满足西方国家以及亚洲这两大国家的需求，特别是全球主导经济模式为资源高消耗型的。

China is now the world's most populous nation, with more than 1.3 billion people, trailed by India in second place, with more than 1.1 billion. By 2030, India is expected to overtake China with nearly 1.5 billion people.

中国有13亿多人口，是目前全球人口最多的国家。印度有11亿多人口，紧随其后。到2030年，印度有望超过中国，人口达到近15亿。

As Chinese and Indian incomes rise, the use of foodstuffs, energy and raw materials will also continue to climb, the report forecasts.

报告预测：随着中国与印度收入增加，粮食、能源和原材料需求也会继续攀升。

Last week, the Earth Policy Institute (EPI), another Washington-based research group that has recently focused on increasing consumption patterns in Asia, said that if China's economy continues to expand at its typical eight percent a year, its income per person will reach the current U.S. level in 2031.

另一非营利性环境研究组织地球政策研究所(Earth Policy Institute，EPI) 最近研究亚洲日益增长的消耗模式。该研究所上周指出： 如果中国经济继续以每年8%的速度增长，其人均收入将于2031年超过美国现在的水平。

By EPI's reckoning, if China one day has three cars for every four people -- the current U.S. ratio -- it will have a total of 1.1 billion cars. The whole world today has 800 million cars.

按照该研究所(EPI)的计算，如果有朝一日中国汽车拥有比率与美国现在相同----每4人拥有3辆车，那么中国汽车保有量达到11亿辆。现在全球汽车保有量8亿辆。

To provide the roads, highways, and parking lots to house this vast fleet, China would have to pave an area equal to the land it now plants in rice, noted Lester Brown, an environmental researcher who also chairs the EPI.

美国地球政策研究所(EPI)所长、环境研究学者莱斯特·布朗(Lester Brown)指出，为这庞大的汽车队伍建公路、高速路以及停车场的面积总和相当于现在中国的稻田。

"The Western economic model -- the fossil-fuel-based, auto-centred, throwaway economy -- is not going to work for China. If it does not work for China, it will not work for India, which by 2031 is projected to have a population even larger than China's," Brown said.

布朗说“西式经济模式---以化石燃料为基础、以汽车业为中心弃置型经济----在中国行不通。如果这种模式在中国行不通，在印度也行不通。到2031年，印度人口将超过中国。”

In a book published last week, the veteran researcher said that the economic model of the United States and Europe, if repeated in China and India, will not work for the three billion other people in developing countries either.
在其上周出版的一本书中，这位资深学者谈到：如果中国与印度重复美国与欧洲的经济模式，发展中国家的30亿人口也无法承受。

However, the Worldwatch Institute report acknowledges that European nations and the United States are still by far the largest consumers of global resources.

然而，世界观察研究院的报告承认欧洲国家与美国目前仍是全球资源最大的消耗者。

The United States consumes three times as much grain per person as China and five times as much as India. The carbon dioxide emissions rate for the United States per person is still six times that of China and 20 times that of India.
美国人均粮食消费额为中国的三倍，印度的五倍。美国人均二氧化碳排放量仍为中国的6倍，印度的20倍。
"If China and India were to consume resources and produce pollution at the current U.S per capita level, it would require two planet Earths just to sustain their two economies," says the report.

报告说，“如果中国与印度按美国现在的人均水平消耗资源造成污染，那么维持这两个经济体需要两个地球。”

The organisation struck a more optimistic note in its analysis, saying that opinion leaders in China and India are aware of the problems that their nations will face if the Western consumption model is further replicated.

该组织分析较为乐观，提到中国和印度的舆论导向者们意识到了如果他们的国家继续这种西式的消耗模式将会面临的种种问题。

"We were encouraged to find that a growing number of opinion leaders in China and India now recognise that the resource-intensive model for economic growth can't work in the 21st century," Flavin said. (END/2006)

Flavin说，“我们大受鼓舞，发现越来越多的中国和印度舆论导向者认识到资源高消耗型经济增长模式在21世纪行不通。”

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posted on 2006-03-16 10:18 宁静 阅读(470) 评论(0)  编辑  收藏 网摘收藏