China's build up of FX reserves
Lex
Friday, April 25, 2008

China's foreign exchange reserves rose by $154bn during the first quarter, a record even by the country's own impressive standards. Yet there are some clues that this may understate the build up of foreign assets, in turn suggesting “hot money” flows into China have accelerated and that holding down the exchange rate is getting harder.
今年第一季度，中国外汇储备增长1540亿美元，即便按照中国惊人的增长标准，这也是一个创纪录的数字。然而，一些迹象表明，这可能还低估了外汇资产的增长，进而说明“热钱”涌入中国的速度有所加快，而压低汇率的难度正不断加大。

China has not yet published a full set of current and capital accounts for the first quarter. That leaves the reserves number as the best proxy. There are two reasons to believe that it understates the position. First, the People's Bank of China is transferring funds to China Investment Corp, the fledgeling sovereign wealth fund with a $200bn kitty. The timing is unclear, but economists estimate that up to $100bn of that target could have been shifted to CIC in the first quarter.
中国尚未发布今年第一季度经常账户及资本账户的整套数据。外汇储备数据因此成为了最佳分析替代。之所以说该数据低估了目前的形势，原因有两点：首先，中国人民银行(PB0C)正向新成立的主权财富基金中国投资有限责任公司(China Investment Corp)转移资金。具体时间尚不确定，但经济学家估计，其中多达1000亿美元可能已于第一季度转到中投。中投的资本金总额为2000亿美元。

Second, the PBoC's accounts give some clues that further piles of foreign exchange are being parked at commercial banks. “Other foreign assets”, a line item on the central bank's accounts that has barely budged in four years, began rising in August last year. Anecdotal evidence suggests commercial banks may be meeting PBoC reserve requirements by accumulating foreign currency. Stone & McCarthy estimate that 75 per cent of the rise in reserve requirements may have been dollar denominated. On that basis, reserve hikes in January and March meant about $42.5bn further accumulation of foreign assets in the first quarter.
其次，中国人民银行的账户提供了一些线索，即额外增加的外汇被放在了商业银行。央行账户上的“其它外国资产”项4年来几乎没有变动，但从去年8月份开始上升。坊间证据显示，商业银行可能正通过累积外币，来达到央行的存款准备金率要求。Stone & McCarthy估计，在存款准备金的增加额中，有75%可能是以美元的形式。在此基础上，今年1月和3月上调准备金率意味着，今年第一季度又累积约425亿美元的外汇资产。
There are other complicating factors. It is unclear, for example, how much marked-to-market gains are included in the reserves figure. But all in, the actual rate of reserves accumulation in the first quarter might be up to $100bn higher than the published number suggests. There is reason to be spooked by this. Rising hot money inflows, which are largely a bet on renminbi appreciation, show that Beijing's capital controls are inadequate. Already China's claims on the US equate to about one-third of China's gross domestic product, estimates economist Brad Setser. How much longer it can accumulate foreign assets to absorb inflows is questionable.
还有其它一些复杂的因素。例如，目前尚不清楚，外汇储备数据中包括多少以市价标价的增加额。但总之，今年第一季度外汇储备的实际增加额，可能比公布的数字高出多达1000亿美元。人们有理由对此感到担心。热钱流入的不断加速表明，中国政府的资本管制是不够的。这些热钱主要是押注人民币升值。经济学家布拉德•塞斯特(Brad Setser)估计，中国的外汇储备已占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的三分之一左右。在累积外国资产以吸收资金流入方面，中国还能坚持多久，这一点令人感到怀疑。

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学习笔记：

exchange reserve 外汇储备
the first quarter第一季度
understate the build up of foreign assets低估了外汇资产
“hot money” flows into China “热钱”涌入中国
hold down the exchange rate 压低汇率
a full set of... ...整套数据
current and capital accounts 经常账户及资本账户

Current Account
The difference between a nation's total exports of goods, services and transfers, and its

total imports of them. Current account balance calculations exclude transactions in financial

assets and liabilities.
Investopedia Says:
The level of the current account is followed as an indicator of trends in foreign trade.

Capital Account
The net result of public and private international investments flowing in and out of a

country.
Investopedia Says:
The net results includes foreign direct investment, plus changes in holdings of stocks, bonds,

loans, bank accounts, and currencies.

understate the position 低估了目前的形势
PB0C中国人民银行
fledgeling（刚会飞的）幼鸟---新成立的
sovereign wealth fund主权财富基金
China Investment Corp(CIC)中国投资有限责任公司
further piles of foreign exchange额外增加的外汇
commercial bank商业银行
Anecdotal evidence坊间证据
PBoC reserve requirements央行的存款准备金率

Reserve Requirements存款准备金率
Requirements regarding the amount of funds that banks must hold in reserve against deposits

made by their customers. This money must be in the bank's vaults or at the closest Federal

Reserve bank.

reserve hikes上调准备金率
foreign assets外汇资产
a bet on renminbi appreciation押注人民币升值