"I've been in this business for 20 years and what I'll tell you is only fools predict oil prices," he says. "But it's very clear in my mind that oil prices have been totally disconnected from reality and are not reflective at all of supply and demand fundamentals."He points out that oil traders were justifying the surge in oil prices for much of 2007 because of fears of a possible US war with Iran. But since a US National Intelligence Estimate was released that made a war much less likely, oil prices have remained near record highs. "The NIE comes out and what happened? Nothing.... The premium that went into oil prices never left. The speculative market is like the tail wagging the dog."

"我已经从事此行业20多年了,我告诉你,只有傻子才预测原油价格."Fadel Gheit说到."但是我非常清楚原油价格已经完全和真实脱钩,而且并不能够真实反映所有供求关系原则."他指出原油交易员为2007年原油价格增长辩护,说那是因为担心美国与伊朗可能发生的战争.但当美国国家情报预测战争爆发可能性很低,原油价格仍然居高不下."当国家情报预测发布后发生了什么?什么都没有发生!原油价格的虚高仍然存在.这个市场因为投机行为而完全主次颠倒"

 

请注意:the tail wagging the dog 意思是:尾巴摇狗（次要部分支配或决定全局）