China's car market
Shanghaied
Apr 21st 2005 | SHANGHAI
From The Economist print edition
Things are going awry for foreign carmakers in China
STRUGGLING elsewhere, the world's carmakers are increasingly relying on China, with its 1.3 billion potential customers, to bail them out. Comforting forecasts abound. McKinsey, a consultancy, expects China, already the world's fourth-largest car market with sales of 2.3m in 2004, to overtake Germany this year and Japan by 2010. America, with 17m cars sold a year, could be passed soon after.
That will be the official message at the Shanghai motor show, which opened to the public on April 22nd. Yet, in truth, China's car market is ailing. After soaring by more than 55% in 2002 and over 75% in 2003, growth in car sales slowed abruptly last year, to 12%. In the first quarter of 2005, sales actually fell by nearly 8%, though there was a small rise in March.
The main culprit has been the Chinese government's crackdown—to help cool its still booming economy—on the car loans that fuelled much of the spectacular recent sales growth. This is colliding with a big rise in capacity, the result of optimistic earlier growth forecasts. In the past two years, almost every foreign carmaker has declared an ambition to increase mainland production. Despite recently giving warning of margin pressures from price wars, General Motors (GM) insisted that it will stick to its $3 billion plan to double capacity to 1.3m units by 2007. In total, foreign car firms and their local joint-venture partners plan to invest $15 billion to triple output to over 7m cars by 2008. Such growth and consequent over-supply is common in emerging markets—often leading to bust, as it did in Brazil in 1997-98. In China, capacity problems are exacerbated by expanding domestic car firms.
The glut threatens to slash prices already hit by slowing demand and China's commitment to the World Trade Organisation to cut its high tariffs on imported cars. The price of a Volkswagen (VW) Jetta, a popular mid-market model, has already fallen by one-third in the past three years, to 100,000 yuan ($12,000) in late 2004.
This is hitting profitability. In 2003, VW earned over $500m in China, two-thirds of its total global profits. Last year its Chinese profits more than halved; Goldman Sachs forecasts that it will lose over $500m in China this year. Its market share—50% not so long ago—has plunged to barely 10%.
Management change is suddenly rife. On April 17th, VW said that Winfried Vahland, vice-chairman of its Skoda unit, will replace Folker Weissgerber, a former board member responsible for China, and Bernd Leissner, head of China, who is to retire. Weeks earlier, GM announced the departure of its China boss, Phil Murtaugh.
The new bosses face a growing threat from Chinese carmakers. Traditionally, the domestic industry has been weak, fragmented—China has over 120 (mostly small) car firms—and technologically primitive. Some 90% of cars sold in China are foreign brands. But China's government has long aspired to create global car champions. One big firm, Shanghai Automotive (SAIC), which has joint-ventures with both VW and GM and plans a $1 billion overseas listing of its shares this year, is busily buying foreign car technology—most recently from Britain's failed MG-Rover. Firms unconstrained by foreign partnerships are even more aggressive. Chery (part-owned by SAIC) and Geely are both accused of blatantly copying foreign car technology. GM says that Chery's popular small QQ model is a direct rip-off of its Chevrolet Spark. Both GM and Toyota have failed to win court protection in China for their intellectual property.
Chinese firms are cornering the crucial market for the small, cheap cars that now appeal to middle-class buyers no longer able to borrow heavily to pay for a bigger vehicle. Two of the three top-selling models in March were Chinese brands—Chery's QQ and FAW's catchily named TJ7101U. They are under-cutting the foreign firms by using more cheap labour relative to capital. Shanghai GM's car plant is full of robots. At Geely's factory, 40 minutes south of Shanghai, visitors are jolted back to the past, watching workers sweat to bolt car bodies together by hand.
“We must make cars like people from Wenzhou make lighters”, says Li Shufu, Geely's boss, revealing the extent of his ambition: Wenzhou city makes one-quarter of the world's lighters. Though there are technical and quality hurdles to overcome, Chinese car firms plan big capacity growth, and want to sell cars overseas. Chery, which already sells 8,000 cars a year abroad, plans to enter America in 2007 and has its eye on Europe. On April 15th, Brilliance (BMW's partner in China) revealed plans to build its Zhonghua (“Chinese nation”) sedans in Egypt this year. Added to the other bad news for foreign car firms, that prospect may take some air out of the tyres in Shanghai this week.
我的译文：
外来汽车厂商在中国每况愈下
由于中国以外市场形势严峻，全世界的汽车厂商们正日益依赖拥有13亿潜在消费者的中国市场以摆脱困境。乐观的预测处处都是。中国作为全世界第四大轿车市场，2004年汽车销售达到230万辆；咨询公司McKinsey预测，中国将于今年赶上德国，并在2010年前追上日本。美国每年销售轿车1700万辆，可能在不久之后被赶超。
上海汽车展于4月22日向公众开放，这些将会作为正式消息对外公布。然而实际上，中国的轿车市场已经走向不佳境遇了。在2002年超过55%以及2003年超过75%的泡沫增长之后，轿车销售的增长去年急转直下，仅增长了12%。尽管三月份有小幅上升，2005年第一季度，销量竟还下降了差不多8%。
这一结果的元凶要数中国政府的政策—冷却其依然高热发展的经济—限制了近来屡创销售增幅奇观的汽车消费贷款。这与产量大幅增长产生了冲击，而产量的增长则是先前对增幅乐观估计的结果。在过去两年里，差不多每个国外汽车生产商都曾宣布要增加大陆生产能力的熊熊野心。尽管通用汽车最近对价格战带来的利润压力发出了警告，他们还是坚持将会花费30亿美元、计划将生产能力翻番，至2007年达到130万单位。总的来说，国外汽车厂商及其本地合资伙伴们计划投资150亿美元，使产量扩大三倍，至2008年将会超过年产700万辆。这种增长和伴之而来的供给过剩在新兴市场是非常普遍的—常常会导致低潮，就像巴西1997到1998年一样。在中国，由于国内汽车厂商急剧扩大，产量问题就更加严重了。
随着需求放缓及中国加入WTO、承诺削减进口轿车的高额关税，危机四伏的大幅降价已经来临。作为流行中档车的大众捷达在过去三年里已经降价1/3，在2004年晚些时候，达到了10万元人民币（约合12000美元）。
这也正重创着收益率。2003年，大众在中国赚了超过5亿美元，占其全球盈利的2/3。去年其中国市场盈利仅占一半多一点；Goldman Sachs预测大众今年在中国将会损失超过5亿美元。其市场份额—不久以前还占50%—跳水至仅仅10%。
改革管理层突然就成了家常便饭。4月17日大众称旗下斯柯达副主席Winfried Vahland将会取代前董事会成员Folker Weissgerber负责中国市场，而且中国区总裁Bernd Leissner也会退休。几个星期以前，通用汽车宣布其中国区总裁Bernd Leissner离职。
新老板们面临着来自中国汽车制造商们不断增强的威胁。传统意义上来说，国内产业是软弱、分散、而且技术落后的—中国有120多家汽车厂商（多为小型企业）。中国市场销售的汽车中约有90%为国外品牌。不过中国政府长期旨在创建全球汽车巨头。上汽这家大企业就和大众和通用合资，并计划今年海外募股10亿美元，正加紧购买国外汽车技术—最近是从英国濒临破产的MG-Rover。不受国外合作伙伴限制的企业甚至更加具有竞争性。奇瑞（上汽持有部分股权）和吉利就双双被起诉明显抄袭国外汽车技术。通用汽车称奇瑞颇受欢迎的小型汽车QQ就是直接抄袭其雪佛兰Spark的。通用汽车和丰田汽车在争取知识产权上双双败诉于中国的法律保护。
中国企业正垄断着小型、经济型轿车的重要市场，如今正吸引着中产阶级购买者，他们还不能重拳出击、购买大一些的汽车。3月份热销的三款汽车中有2款中国品牌—奇瑞QQ和一汽夏利的TJ7101U。这些中国企业以相对于资本来说更加便宜的劳动力来重创国外厂商。上海通用的轿车车间里满是机器设备。而在上海以南40分钟车程的吉利工厂里，看着工人们挥汗如雨地手工安装车身，参观者们仿佛又回到了从前，
“我们一定要向温州人做打火机一样地制造汽车。”吉利的老板李书福表达了自己的远大志向：温州市生产了全世界1/4的打火机。尽管还有技术和质量问题亟待解决，中国轿车厂商还是计划加大产量增幅，并向海外销售轿车。奇瑞现在每年已经向海外销售8000辆汽车，计划2007年打入美国市场，同时也把目光瞄向了欧洲。4月15日，华晨（宝马中国合作伙伴）透露今年在埃及建造中华轿车的计划。对于国外汽车厂商们来说尤其雪上加霜，这一前景规划可能给本周上海车展泄气。