China's currency
Time to let go
是时候放开了
May 19th 2005
From The Economist print edition
China should loosen its currency peg—and quickly
中国应当放开流通管制—而且应该尽快
TEMPERS about China's currency are fraying on both sides of the Pacific. In America, the Bush administration this week branded China's currency policies as “highly distortionary” and made clear that it wanted to see a “substantial alteration” within six months. Coming amidst the reimposition of quotas on imports of some Chinese textiles and with rising anti-Chinese fervour on Capitol Hill, the American message to China is clear: do something about the yuan fast, or risk a protectionist backlash.
中国货币的走向正打磨着太平洋两岸。在美国一方，布什政府本周形容中国货币政策是“严重扭曲的”并重申其希望在六个月内看到“价值的实质回归”。由于美国对一些中国纺织品进口重新实行配额限制以及国会山日益高涨的反华呼声，美国人传递给中国的讯息已十分明确：赶快对人民币有所作为吧，否则就等着美国贸易保护主义者们报复吧。
In Beijing, Wen Jiabao, China's prime minister, has been equally blunt. China's currency, he argued this week, was an issue of “China's own sovereignty”. “Any pressure or effort to politicise an economic matter,” he warned, “will not help solve problems.” In other words, shut up and leave us alone.
在北京一方，中国总理温家宝也同样强硬。他在本周表示，货币流通是中国作为“主权国家”的一部分。并警告说，“任何以政治来对经济施加压力或影响都将于事无补。”换句话说，就是“闭上嘴巴、让我们自己来。”
Mr Wen's irritation is understandable. Most congressmen use few facts and even less logic in their anti-Chinese rants. A stronger yuan would not, as many of them appear to believe, magically erase America's trade deficit. And Mr Wen is right that China's currency policy should be determined by what is best for China. Where he errs is in his apparent conclusions. Economic and political considerations point the same way: China should loosen the yuan's peg, and soon.
温家宝的愤怒是可以理解的。大多数国会议员们的反华言论中都鲜见事实甚至不合逻辑。更加强劲的人民币并不会如他们中的许多人所愿，奇迹般地消除美国的贸易赤字。温家宝的关于中国流通政策应当取决于什么对中国最有利的论断是正确的；而温家宝恰错在了其貌似正确的结论上，其实RMB汇率问题亦是政治问题。从经济和政治角度考虑都会归结到一点：中国应当放松人民币管制，而且要快。
Past its prime
韶华易逝
The yuan has been pegged at 8.28 to the dollar since 1995. For much of that time the policy served China well. A stable currency underpinned the country's booming economic growth—and earned Beijing international plaudits when other Asian currencies plunged during the late 1990s. In recent years, however, it has become a liability, creating ever greater distortions within China's economy. Most important, the currency peg prevents China from running an appropriate monetary policy. In effect, Beijing has been forced to import America's easy-money posture, whereas China's overheating economy called for tightening. The result has been some enormous financial imbalances. Although consumer prices are rising only modestly, there are signs of faster increases in the prices of industrial goods and assets. The booming coastal property market signals an economy awash in cash.
人民币从1995年起就以8.28对美元挂钩。从那时候来说，这一政策是为中国带来了很多好处的。稳定的货币巩固了中国经济的高速增长—并且在其他亚洲国家货币在90年代末期纷纷跳水时为北京赢得了良好的国际声誉。然而近几年，这却成了一项负担，在中国经济内部产生了比以往任何时候都严重的扭曲。最重要的是，流通管制阻碍了中国实行适当的货币政策。实际上，北京已经被迫承受了美国的弱势货币姿态，尽管中国过热的经济需要的是紧缩政策。结果是产生了巨大的金融失衡。虽然消费品价格只是有限地上涨，但工业产品和资产价格已经出现了更快增长的苗头。沿海城市的房地产市场泡沫就已经发出了现金浪潮冲击经济的信号。
Beyond these distortions, evidence is mounting that the yuan is becoming increasingly undervalued, which itself has a cost: too many resources are allocated towards exports and too few to domestic demand. China's current-account surplus is rising sharply: from 1.5% of GDP in 2001 to 4.2% of GDP in 2004. Some forecasts for 2005 are much higher still.
不止是这些扭曲现象，还有迹象表明人民币越来越被低估，为此，人民币本身也要付出代价：流向出口的资源过多，满足国内需求的资源过少。中国的经常项目下盈余急剧增长：从2001年占GDP的1.5%直至2004年占GDP的4.2%。有分析认为，2005年仍将更高。
The demands of macroeconomic management and the need for balanced growth both suggest the currency regime needs to change. The question is how. China needs a currency system that will not just ease today's distortions but will allow it to cope with a turbulent few years ahead, as America's huge deficits eventually send the dollar down farther.
对宏观经济管理的需求以及均衡增长的需要同样都要求流通体制的改变。问题是怎么改。中国需要的流通体制要不仅能减轻眼前的扭曲问题、而且还会使其可以在此后纷繁数年里可以应付自如，因为美国巨额赤字最终将会把美元拖低很久。
The boldest move would be for Beijing to simply let the yuan float, albeit in a managed kind of way. That is much less radical than it sounds. A more flexible currency would not force China to abandon its capital controls. Although many people—including American and Chinese government officials—tend to talk about a floating currency and free capital flows as though they were the same, there is no reason to lump the two together. Currency flexibility can, and probably should, come first. With a managed float, the Chinese could focus on domestic monetary policy, while intervening enough to stop disruptive swings in the yuan.
对北京来说，最大胆的举动就是直接是人民币浮动，即使是以一种管理的方式。其实这远不如听起来那么极端。流通更灵活并不会促使中国放弃其对资本的控制。尽管很多人—包括美国也包括中国政府的官员们—倾向于讨论浮动汇率及自由资本流通，好像他们是意见一致的，可是，将双方揉在一起却是毫无理由的。流通的灵活性能够、也很可能应当首先实现。有管理的浮动之下，中国在充分干预受到各方影响不够稳定的人民币的同时，可以集中精力于国内货币政策，。
Weighing the dangers
衡量风险
The difficulty is that after a decade of a tight peg, China's banks, firms and politicians are terrified of the uncertainty of a float. Given this timidity, China could replicate much of the flexibility of a managed float by shifting the yuan's peg from the dollar to a basket of currencies, at the same time widening the band within which the yuan can fluctuate, say to 10% above or below the peg. Beijing must also decide how big an appreciation, if any, should accompany the shift. Here, too, Chinese caution suggests a modest revaluation is most likely. Again, such timidity is misplaced. A small appreciation would probably worsen China's monetary predicament by increasing the size of capital inflows, as investors bet on more appreciation down the road. Better to squelch the speculators by choosing a substantially stronger yuan early on.
难的是：中国的银行、企业以及政客们在紧密挂钩政策实行十年以后，都对浮动汇率的不确定性心存恐惧。由于胆怯，中国可能将人民币与美元单一挂钩转化为与一揽子货币挂钩，得出一种新的有管理的浮动汇率；同时扩大人民币波动范围，比如在绑定汇率上下10%以内。即便要增值，随着这一转化会有多大的增值也肯定由北京来决定。这也说明，中国的谨慎暗示了很可能要实行一种适当的价值重估。这种胆怯又一次错位了。小幅度增值引起的资本流入增加可能会恶化中国的货币困境，因为投资者们都在赌接下来的更大的增值。早些选择充分强势人民币政策会更有助于压制投机行为。
The economic risks in abandoning the peg are smaller than many in Beijing believe. China's financial sector is fragile—but that simply suggests it would be foolish to rush towards full capital mobility. The government would lose money on its huge stash of foreign-exchange reserves—but that loss will occur whenever the yuan appreciates and will be bigger the longer today's system continues. It is true that an appreciation might modestly and temporarily slow China's growth as the economy changes gear—but, since China's exports contain lots of imported inputs, it is hard to see even a double-digit yuan appreciation sending exports into a tail-spin.
放弃固定汇率的经济风险比很多中国人笃信的要小。中国的金融部门是很脆弱的—不过这仅仅意味着突击实现资本完全流动是不明智的。政府将为其巨额外汇储备而有所损失—但只要人民币升值这一损失就会产生、并且如今的体制持续得越久，损失就会越大。升值可能适度并暂时放慢转轨期间的中国经济增长—可是，由于中国出口中包含很多进口加工贸易，人民币即使以两位数升值也很难将出口打入困境。
Today's economic risks may be modest, but they will grow if China's government continues to delay. The political risks will mount as well. Washington's protectionist rhetoric is no idle threat: America's behaviour towards Japan in the mid-1980s shows that tub-thumping in Congress can quickly lead on to real protectionist action. Delay also adds to the dangers for the global economy. By showing bold leadership now, China could start the much-needed adjustment of global economic imbalances.
现在的经济风险可能是很温和的，但是如果中国政府继续拖延，风险就会加大。政治风险也同样将会出现。华盛顿方面的贸易保护主义论调也并非危言耸听：美国在80年代中期针对日本的做法显示—国会的大肆宣扬可能很快就带来实际的贸易保护行为。拖延还会增加对全球经济的危害。为了显示其强势领导地位，中国现在可能会开始对全球经济不均衡作出非常必要的调整
A stronger yuan would allow Asia's other emerging economies to let their currencies rise. A slower pace of Chinese reserve accumulation might nudge America's long-term interest rates higher—exactly what is needed to curb American consumption. Only if financial markets panicked would interest rates soar enough to cause a serious crash. And that kind of panic becomes more likely as the imbalances grow and the political temperature rises. To avoid all this, help its own economy and, once again, win plaudits for economic statesmanship, China should loosen the yuan peg, and do it now.
更加强劲的人民币会使其他亚洲新兴经济体采取货币升值政策。中国外汇储备放慢脚步可能推动美国长期利率升高—恰恰是抑制美国消费所需。只有金融市场恐慌引起的利率高升才会强到要引起一系列问题。而且，由于增长不均衡和政治温度升高，这种恐慌会更有可能发生。为了避免这一切、也为了有助于其自身经济和再一次为其经济政治领导才能赢得满堂彩，中国应该放松人民币管制，而且就在现在。