Restricting Chinese textile exports will only rebound on America and Europe
限制中国纺织品出口只会给美国和欧洲带来意想不到的影响

IT TAKES a lot of chutzpah to plead lack of preparation when a development has been ten years in the making. That, however, is precisely what western clothing manufacturers are doing. This January saw the end of the decade-long phase-out of a quota system that had protected the world's biggest textile markets—America and the European Union (EU)—from cheap imports, largely from Asia, for 40 years.

酝酿了十年的一项发展，还辨称缺乏准备，这实在是有些蛮不讲理。然而，这却正是西方成衣制造商们的所作所为。今年一月，长达十年之久的逐步取消的配额之战终于接近尾声，这一配额制度曾以从亚洲大量廉价进口保护了世界最大纺织品市场—美国和欧盟长达40年。

Predictably, exports from Asia, particularly China, have soared. In the first quarter of 2005, for example, the number of Chinese cotton trousers imported by America rose by 1,573%, cotton T-shirts and blouses were up by 1,277% and cotton underwear by 318%, according to America's Commerce Department. Total Chinese textile and clothing exports to America were over 60% higher in the first quarter of this year than in the same period in 2004.

不出所料，亚洲的出口，尤其是中国，一路飙升。以2005年第一季度为例，美国商业部数字显示，美国从中国进口棉制长裤、棉制T恤及衬衫增加了1277%，棉制内衣裤增长318%。从中国出口到美国的全部纺织品和成衣今年第一季度与去年同期相比增长超过了60%。

In Europe, imports of Chinese pullovers more than quintupled, as did imports of men's trousers. Imports of T-shirts and blouses nearly doubled as prices fell by as much as one-quarter. “We simply don't understand how they can produce at these prices,” says Thierry Noblot of the Union des Industries Textiles, the French textile industry's main lobby group.

在欧洲，进口中国套衫和男士长裤增加了5倍以上。T恤和衬衫进口差不多翻番，而价格下降了1/4。“我们只是不能理解他们以这样的价格怎么还能生产。”法国纺织业协会组织法国纺织服装业联合会迪里·诺布说。

Such howls of anguish have had their effect on both sides of the Atlantic. Earlier this month, America said it would impose “safeguard” quotas on seven categories of Chinese textiles, including cotton underwear, shirts and trousers. These quotas, which restrict their year-on-year growth to 7.5%, can be renewed annually until 2008 and could be expanded to encompass other goods. Textile firms are also vigorously backing proposed legislation that would slap a tax on Chinese imports unless China revalues its currency, the yuan.

如此痛不欲生的一阵哭诉影响着大西洋两岸。本月早些时候，美国称其将强行“捍卫”七类中国纺织品的进口配额，包括棉制内衣裤、衬衫和长裤。配额限制年度增长为7.5%，在2008年以前每年更新一次，并可能扩大并涵盖其他货物。纺织企业也都积极支持提议法案，该法案会对中国进口商品增课关税，除非中国重估人民币价值。

Them ol' cotton fields back home

把那些棉制品遣送回去

The EU's trade commissioner, Peter Mandelson, who was this week negotiating fruitlessly with Chinese officials, has been more circumspect—so far. Although the European textile and clothing industry has been shrinking, the EU remains the world's leading exporter of textiles and the second-largest exporter of clothing.

欧盟贸易专员彼得·曼德尔森本周与中国官方的谈判毫无进展，到目前为止已更显谨慎。尽管欧洲纺织品和服装业已经开始缩水，欧盟还是保持纺织品出口世界领先及服装出口第二大的地位。

Mr Mandelson says he opposes quotas, but has conceded that there needs to be a more gradual transition to the new regime. Last month he launched an investigation into nine categories of Chinese products, and is now discussing emergency limits on imports of T-shirts and flax yarn. During this week's talks between Mr Mandelson and Gao Hucheng, China's textile negotiator, the EU gave China until May 31st to convince it that it will scale back exports significantly. If China fails to be convincing by the end of this month, the European Commission will begin the process of reintroducing import quotas for those two categories of Chinese products.

曼德尔森先生说他反对配额制，但也承认需要以一种更加渐进的过渡来实行新体制。上月他发起了针对中国9类中国产品的一项调查，现在正在讨论旨在限制进口T恤和麻纱的紧急措施。在曼德尔森先生与中国纺织品谈判代表高虎城本周的会谈中，欧盟要求中国在5月31日前确信其出口显著减少。如果中国本月底仍不能令人信服，欧盟委员会将开始对二类中国产品再次启动进口配额程序。

To forestall further retaliation, on May 20th China said that it would voluntarily raise export taxes on 74 clothing products by up to 400% from the start of June. This was an astute move. China has already used the new bargaining power it offers by threatening to withdraw the new taxes from any items subjected to quotas. The economic cost should be minimal, since it covers barely one-fifth of China's apparel exports. Only 3% of the mainland's total exports will be hit, reckons Ma Jun, an analyst at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. Nor will America's revived quotas dent China's growth much, he says.

为了防止更多的报复性措施， 5月20日中国提出将从六月初起主动提高74种服装类产品的出口关税，达到400%。这一招非常机智。中国已经用了新的谈判手段，威胁称将针对配额适用的任何项目收回新的关税政策。由于仅仅涵盖了中国服饰类出口的1/5，这样做的经济成本是很小的。德意志银行香港分析人士马军估计，大陆出口总额中仅有3%会受到冲击。他还说，美国再次启动的配额制也不会对中国的发展造成很大的影响。

Joshua Lu at Morgan Stanley points out that, since China's exports had been restricted for so long, they are still small in absolute terms, and there is relatively little business to lose from renewed protectionism. Thus in T-shirts, trousers and underwear, China had just a 1-2% market share in America before January 1st. Although it is now 7-15%, that is still not very much.

Joshua Lu在摩根士丹利指出，因为中国出口已被限制得太久了，在绝对数量上来说还是很少的，并且重新启动的贸易保护主义也不会使其失去多少生意。就是说，1月1日以前，中国T恤、长裤和内衣裤仅占美国市场1~2%的份额。虽然现在已经占7~15%，仍不太多。

The effect on mainland China's upstream textile industry will be more severe. The tariffs are small in absolute terms, with an average rise from 0.2 to 1 yuan (2.5 to 12.5 American cents) per item. But the new level represents about 6% of the overall cost of a piece of clothing—enough to massacre already thin operating margins. These range from 2% to 10%, with fabric producers, such as Fountain Set, and end-of-the-line distributors, such as Li & Fung and VF Asia, tending to be more profitable than contract garment-makers.

中国大陆蒸蒸日上的纺织业承受的影响将会是更加严峻的。关税的绝对额很少，每项平均增加2毛到1元（2.5到12.5美分）。可是新标准带来的约占一件服装总成本6%的关税--足以对已经很薄的营运利润造成毁灭性打击。这一比例从2%到10%不等，织物生产商，如福田；及终端经销商，如利丰、威富等，都比合同成衣制造商们更有利可图。

Still, Vincent Cheung of VF Asia says that the new tax will affect future shipments. “We can't raise our prices this year because they are set. In the future we have to charge our buyers more but it is not easy—we may have to go halfway and cut cost.” Bruce Rockowitz, president of Li & Fung, says that many textile factories in southern China “built up tremendous capacity in preparation for the lifting of quotas and that now has to be run down.”

威富的张荣辉(Vincent Cheung)还是认为，新关税将会影响到日后的海运业。“我们今年不能提高价格，因为这都是事先约定了的。以后我们就不得不转嫁给买家，可这也并非易事—也许不得不半途而废，而且还要削减成本。”利丰总裁Bruce Rockowitz则说，中国南方很多纺织工厂“为提高配额做准备增加了巨大的生产能力，如今则被迫匆匆撤下。”

The added pressure on profits may spur consolidation in what is still a fragmented sector with a large number of single-workshop manufacturers. So it could result before long in a more competitive industry with greater economies of scale. Meanwhile, most of the bigger firms are protected by two factors. The first is geographical diversification—the distortions of the old quota system forced Chinese-owned textile companies to finish clothes in other Asian countries to avoid the “made in China” tag. Luen Thai, for example, has factories in four foreign countries, accounting for three-quarters of its production. Second, the big Chinese manufacturers do not compete on price alone—their rivals elsewhere in Asia are cheaper—but on quality, scale, reliability, speed and sophistication that rivals struggle to match.

对利润施加的额外压力可能会促进仍旧分散生产的大量单打独斗的厂商之间的合并。因此不久以后可能就会产生一个规模经济更强、竞争更加激烈的行业。同时，大多较大的企业从两方面因素寻求保护。一个是地域多样性—旧的配额体制产生的扭曲现象迫使中国纺织企业到其他亚洲国家完成成衣生产，以避免出现“中国制造”的标签。例如，Luen Thai就在4个国家拥有工厂，占其产量的3/4。另一个是大的中国厂商并不仅以低价竞争—其遍布亚洲的对手们出价更低—而是在质量、级别、可靠性、供货速度及设计精巧这些对手们难以企及的方面。

The quotas and tariffs will not save the American textile industry or restore the 1m jobs it has lost since the 1980s. “China isn't their problem,” says Laura Jones of the US Association of Importers of Textiles and Apparel. “It's the whole rest of the world.”

配额和关税并不能挽救美国纺织业或者重建20世纪80年代以来减少的1百万个就业机会。美国纺织品与服饰进口商协会的Laura Jones指出，“他们的问题并不在于中国，而是全球经济都陷入了停顿。”

In Europe, the textile lobby's Mr Noblot thinks that the Chinese tariff rises will hardly alter his members' prospects. The price of a Chinese T-shirt for European importers will increase from €2 to €2.10 ($2.50-2.60) according to Mr Noblot. For shirts the difference will be one cent.

在欧洲，纺织业协会Mr Noblot认为，中国关税的提高将很难改变其成员们的预期。依照Mr Noblot的说法，对欧盟进口商来说，一件中国产T恤的价格将会从€2 提高到 €2.10（合$2.50-2.60）。而衬衫则只差1美分。

At most, the restrictions will slow Chinese export growth to the West. But any slack is likely to be taken up by other poor countries. The “safeguard” measures—a product of the tortuous negotiations on China's admission to the World Trade Organisation—cannot be used against other countries. One of the protectionist arguments used last year for prolonging quotas was that their abolition would wipe out export-based industries in poor countries that allegedly relied on quota protection from Chinese competition.

限制措施至多只能放慢中国对西方出口的增长速度。可是一点懈怠就可能被其他更穷国利用。“防卫”措施—中国获准加入WTO漫长谈判的产物—并不能对其他国家实施。保护主义者去年为了延长配额提出的意见之一就是放弃配额将会消灭穷国的以出口为主的产业，而他们声称正是依赖配额保护才能不受来自中国的竞争的侵袭。

Spinning a yarn

把线缠起来

Bangladesh was an often-cited example. Clothing makes up over two-thirds of its exports. It relies on imported fabric. Yet its clothing exports to America rose by 21% in the first quarter of the new regime. China's rivals continue to complain about unfair methods—such as an undervalued currency and hidden subsidies. But so far they have mostly withstood the deluge.

孟加拉国就是一个经常被引以为例的国家。服装出口占了其出口总额的2/3。而其一直依赖进口布匹。可是，在新制度下，孟加拉出口到美国的服装第一季度增长了21%。中国的对手们还在继续抱怨不公平竞争--如人民币低估和隐性补贴。不过至今为止，这二者还能经得起狂轰滥炸。

The true losers from any return of quotas will be American and European consumers and the retailers that cater to them. It will mean higher prices now, and hinder lower future prices by slowing the emergence of Chinese “supply-chain cities”, as UBS, an investment bank, calls them, that will handle the entire process of making a piece of clothing from sheep to shelf.

配额回归导致的真正受害者将会使美国和欧洲的消费者和向他们销售的零售商们。这将意味着如今价格越高、其后中国“供应链城市”出现速度放慢导致价格越低，将会解决一件服装从羊毛到货架的全过程中的所有问题，就像瑞士银行所说。

Chinese textile factories have tended to specialise in one process and finish goods overseas to avoid quotas. But unlike its main rivals, China has the advantage of huge domestic fibre and fabric production. Without quotas, it could build vertically integrated firms, lowering costs, raising quality and cutting time to market—great for western customers. That will surely happen, sooner or later. China's emergence as the ultimate one-stop textiles shop can be delayed—but not stopped.

中国纺织厂商倾向于专门从事单一程序，并在海外完成产品生产以避免配额限制。然而和其主要对手们不同的是，中国具有国内大量生产纤维和纤维制品的优势。如果没有配额，中国可以建立企业垂直分布，降低成本，提高质量并缩短推向市场的时间—对西方消费者来说真是太好了。这一天迟早会到来。中国最终成为纺织品一站式购货地可能会推迟，--但决不会停止。